I think not many players will change to pikes, as this weapon doesn't really pay for anything. Three slots, unsheathable, unbalanced, can't stab through ground or fight on slopes at all, too much glancing and the goddamn shield bubble around the horse's chest/lower neck make it still an incredibly ungrateful choice. Some will try for a time, so you will always have a certain amount of them on the servers, but they will be bad (what else, with such a weapon?) and thus not make any difference.