Korean cold war heating up again?

[Kafein]

The conditionality you provide for the USA being able to obliterate nuclear facilities is the main problem precisely, very few countries would approve of using force within another country's border. Sovereignty is still unconditional for a lot of countries and especially for countries like Russia and China. Not the USA or any other country is willing to take the bad rep for doing such a thing. And that is just talking about regular missiles, nuclear missiles are not even a possibility.

If you put a nuclear base in a mining facility, who is going to see what goes on in there? Who is going to see the difference between trucks carrying iron ore and enriched uranium? Then there is also the fact that any country is allowed to use and produce nuclear energy and that any country is allowed to produce missiles. You can't bomb a country for doing any of those things and the link between the two is hard to establish. Case and point Iraq and Pakistan.

It think it is well possible to hide such a facility and it is also possible to make such a facility impervious to air assaults even with nuclear missiles. To protect from radiation you only need 60 cm of concrete. If a country is able to produce nuclear bombs, they are surely able to protect them from air assaults. You do in fact need a ground assault or some covert ops operation to take them down. Furthermore facilities will be spread out and there is not any guarantee that the destruction of the facilities will do anything more than slowing them down a little.

I didn't state that North Korea lives in complete autarky, they are willing to though. They don't let any amount of economic sanction stop them in their military pursuits. They do not live in complete autarky because the international community does not want the Nortk-Koreans to starve, but sanctioning is still severe.

Good points. But mainly yes I know this will never happen because China and Russia will never accept.

May I remind you of the fake proofs of WMD which included sat-pics causing quite some "irritations" in Iraq...

This is not a valid argument against actual satellite images though.

[Dach]

Just in case...

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[Tigero]

Step one: Make worldpolice USA send 5 fully loaded carriers to the west.
Step two: Give Kim one chance to fuck off.
Step three: Bomb those fucking friends away with the power of a thousand bombers 'murica fuck yeah!.

[Henry_Broodsonson]

They are not planning on trading nuclear weapons.

[Tibe]

Step one: Make worldpolice USA send 5 fully loaded carriers to the west.
Step two: Give Kim one chance to fuck off.
Step three: Bomb those fucking friends away with the power of a thousand bombers 'murica fuck yeah!.

Im not totally in favor of nuclear war, or really any sort of war. But frankly this is how it will turn out eventually. A country like NK will never simply back down. They will be threatening the world with their crap for decades to come. Its only a matter of time till they completely loose their mind and fire first, or till World simply has had enough from their shit and blows them to oblivion. Even if NK peacefully surrendered and lost dictatorship, it wouldnt still be a win. Than South-Korea would be the one feeding all those millions of people and educating their brainwashed minds to what the world really looks like and how it really works. Would still destroy SK-s decades of achived hard work.

[Oberyn]

Im not totally in favor of nuclear war, or really any sort of war. But frankly this is how it will turn out eventually. A country like NK will never simply back down. They will be threatening the world with their crap for decades to come. Its only a matter of time till they completely loose their mind and fire first, or till World simply has had enough from their shit and blows them to oblivion. Even if NK peacefully surrendered and lost dictatorship, it wouldnt still be a win. Than South-Korea would be the one feeding all those millions of people and educating their brainwashed minds to what the world really looks like and how it really works. Would still destroy SK-s decades of achived hard work.

I more or less agree with this, except for total war being inevitable. the US and SK having any sort of influence on NK internal reform is almost impossible, but that doesn't mean NK is totally immune to external influence. China is obviously the best bet to influence NK to open up to certain limited aspects of "free" and "capitalistic societies", if only for the economic, diplomatic and military benefits, i.e the same reasons China opened up. The idea that NK has to do a complete 180 and become a clone of SK for the war to be "won" is obviouly a western perspective.
And anyways the obliteration of the NK regime by military means is beneficial to no one, especially SK. On a similar thread in TW forums I posted this and stand by it:

Reunification would hurt SK way, way more than German reunification hurt West Germany. The disparity between the two is enormous. And in any war scenario I've read of it seems Seoul would be at best heavily hit, at worst completely destroyed. I don't think SK is willing to sacrifice millions of dead and displaced in a war for the priviledge of subsidizing a massively poor region half as big in population as itself. Not to mention NKoreans wouldn't exactly embrace their kinship with their SK counterparts when they have just been involved in a war of "eradication" that killed and displaced millions of their own as well.

[Henry_Broodsonson]

Well, the industrial zone is still open. No batphone, but the bridge is working. 

[Ganner]

Well, the industrial zone is still open. No batphone, but the bridge is working. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22011207

No longer allowing entry to the South Korean managers who work there.  So a closure wouldn't be too far off

[Henry_Broodsonson]

Step one: Make worldpolice USA send 5 fully loaded carriers to the west.
Step two: Give Kim one chance to fuck off.
Step three: Bomb those fucking friends away with the power of a thousand bombers 'murica fuck yeah!.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=0HEitZ06oRY#t=95s

[Tagora]

I more or less agree with this, except for total war being inevitable. the US and SK having any sort of influence on NK internal reform is almost impossible, but that doesn't mean NK is totally immune to external influence. China is obviously the best bet to influence NK to open up to certain limited aspects of "free" and "capitalistic societies", if only for the economic, diplomatic and military benefits, i.e the same reasons China opened up. The idea that NK has to do a complete 180 and become a clone of SK for the war to be "won" is obviouly a western perspective.
And anyways the obliteration of the NK regime by military means is beneficial to no one, especially SK. On a similar thread in TW forums I posted this and stand by it:

Actually, they'd get lots of benefits, no more 'demilitarized zones'.  No need for millions of troops and equipment along their border.  Mobilized military costs quite a bit.  Take away the border and you open tons of opportunities for business to expand from the south to the north.  South Korean businesses would benefit from more workers, business, and trade.  Contempt?  It's not like a war between N. & S. Korea would make history, and surely no more contempt than they have for each other now.  Also, you're basing the destructiveness of a war between these two countries on speculation.  You're blowing the ideological differences between the two nations out of proportion, letting it affect your judgment when it comes to determining whether the two could unify as 'Korea'.  Between private and public investment in North Korea, they would become more prosperous, at least more than they are now ($2000 per capita?).   South Korea would get rich off of their capital. 

[Penitent]

There is virtually no contempt between north and south koreans (the common people, anyways).  I've been to Korea, and most people (north AND south) desperately want reunification, and are deeply effected by the status of a divided Korea and a divided national identity -- even though its been so long.

Amid all this speculation, we should remember that China has a treaty with NK to help defend it should it ever come under attack.  If USA decides to move carriers in and bomb them, they will have awakened the sleeping dragon. (Dejavu - anyone remember how the 1st Korean war ended?)

Unless, of course, China decides to ignore the mutual defense treaty.  I'm not sure how that would look to its other allies though.

[donib]

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Says enough doesnt it?

I feel really sorry for the people, both in south and north. Just a product of post imperialism and cold war and some white people thinking they are cool and need to rule the planet.

[Tagora]

There is virtually no contempt between north and south koreans (the common people, anyways).  I've been to Korea, and most people (north AND south) desperately want reunification, and are deeply effected by the status of a divided Korea and a divided national identity -- even though its been so long.

Amid all this speculation, we should remember that China has a treaty with NK to help defend it should it ever come under attack.  If USA decides to move carriers in and bomb them, they will have awakened the sleeping dragon. (Dejavu - anyone remember how the 1st Korean war ended?)

Unless, of course, China decides to ignore the mutual defense treaty.  I'm not sure how that would look to its other allies though.

The U.S. could destroy all of China with one Los Angeles class sub.  Not joking.

[Oberyn]

you're basing the destructiveness of a war between these two countries on speculation. 

No, I'm basing it on every single war scenario/game that has ever been developped concerning a potential war with NK, whether it is from US or SK sources (NK and Chinese sources are obviously not accessible). This might be "speculation", but it's speculation from people who have way more information than any layman and experience in modern war. You're basing your opinion that a war with NK wouldn't result in extreme misery for both sides involved on what exactly? Wishfull thinking? Most of what I've asserted would be obvious to anyone that has even slightly researched the military situation. It isn't a mindblowing revelation, it's the status quo since the end of the Korean war and the reason it hasn't re-errupted since the "armistice". Here's one of many, many links explaining the situation: http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/
As for their ideological differences being overblown, that doesn't even dignify an answer. They couldn't be more diametrically opposed. The only thing they agree on is that they want a reunification, and even that is becoming a less popular option with every generation, especially in SK.
If the reunification happens by peaceful means, Korea could become an economy on par with Japan at the very least, so obviously it would be beneficial for both north and south in the long run. The idea though that the NK military and the political system behind it can just be swatted away like some annoying mosquito is so far beyond the realm of reason it can only have originated from someone with barely passable knowledge of the military and political realities. If it was so simple it would have happened already. Obviously it hasn't. Why do you think that is?

[Tagora]

No, I'm basing it on every single war scenario/game that has ever been developped concerning a potential war with NK, whether it is from US or SK sources (NK and Chinese sources are obviously not accessible). This might be "speculation", but it's speculation from people who have way more information than any layman and experience in modern war. You're basing your opinion that a war with NK wouldn't result in extreme misery for both sides involved on what exactly? Wishfull thinking? Most of what I've asserted would be obvious to anyone that has even slightly researched the military situation. It isn't a mindblowing revelation, it's the status quo since the end of the Korean war and the reason it hasn't re-errupted since the "armistice". Here's one of many, many links explaining the situation: http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/
As for their ideological differences being overblown, that doesn't even dignify an answer. They couldn't be more diametrically opposed. The only thing they agree on is that they want a reunification, and even that is becoming a less popular option with every generation, especially in SK.
If the reunification happens by peaceful means, Korea could become an economy on par with Japan at the very least, so obviously it would be beneficial for both north and south in the long run. The idea though that the NK military and the political system behind it can just be swatted away like some annoying mosquito is so far beyond the realm of reason it can only have originated from someone with barely passable knowledge of the military and political realities. If it was so simple it would have happened already. Obviously it hasn't. Why do you think that is?

If I were to say that the North Korean government would simply evaporate under South Korea, the US, or anyone else I would have said as much.  My point is that speculation negates the validity of a claim, hence why I refrained from it.  Furthermore, there is no quantitative way of determining whether a war is worth fighting.  No "rule of thumb" for waging war.  It's usually a mixture of ideology and logistics.  War is always extreme misery.  But don't delude yourself into thinking that North Korea would fare as well as they did back in the old days.  If that fight, all parties involved, were to continue, North Korea would cease to exist until the west turns the lights back on.  Not that I advocate something like that happening.  Ah, if only North Korea were in any way comparable to East Germany, even that would be better.  Where are you, USSR?

Millions wouldn't die, by the way. And "every single war scenario/game that as ever been developed"...puhleeze.