Korean cold war heating up again?

[Oberyn]

I saw this link posted on TW forum, for a review of various NK "escalations" since '53.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/05/28/46/0401000000AEN20090528004200315F.HTML

[Lennu]

I hope it's all about barking at each other, and that sooner or later both sides get bored with it and drop it.
Worst case scenario is that the nukes will fly. It's probably going to be one of the shortest and most destructive war in the human history. Within a few hours millions of people will simply disappear into the air if the nukes take off.

[Teeth]

What I don't personally understand is how can states develop nuclear weaponry in "secret bases" without all spy satellite services of the planet being aware and able to eliminate those sites.

You can have the best satellite in the world but it is not going to spot anything going on underground or under a roof. Even then someone needs to actually be looking at every inch of the planet. Besides, even if you were able to uncover every secret nuclear base. Who is going to eliminate them? North Korea have been boasting about their nuclear program for a while, economic sanctions have been severe, but nobody feels like invading the country. It wouldn't even get cleared within the UN either, sovereignty is still regarded as absolute by a lot of countries. Even if the UN would allow an intervention, there is still the enormous convential army that North Korea still retains.

If you are willing to live in complete isolation, you can basically do whatever you want inside your country.

[Vibe]

It is not known however if NK even has long range missiles, let alone nuclear heads.

[Tibe]

I watched a NK documentary a year a go. A guy with a spycam went there as a tourist and recorded quite a bit. Man those computers in NK were kids learned programming...huge CRT(had to edit this, made a silly mistake) monitors with like 16bit screens and other stuff. After really watching that docshow I dont really take NK seriuslly at all. The whole place looked like it was 40 years behind from the rest of the world and everything that didnt, was just for show to let the Westerners know how awesome they are. Every person who worked there was like someone out of a Mr. Bean show. Streets were practically empty and there were people working in out of town shops who didnt probably get a single visitor in 3 months.

[Lars]

Replace Vietnamese with Koreans

"We are here to help the Vietnamese, because inside every gook there is an American trying to get out.
It's a hardball world,son."



sorry couldn't resist

[Artyem]

visitors can't see pics , please register or login

[Kafein]

You can have the best satellite in the world but it is not going to spot anything going on underground or under a roof. Even then someone needs to actually be looking at every inch of the planet. Besides, even if you were able to uncover every secret nuclear base. Who is going to eliminate them? North Korea have been boasting about their nuclear program for a while, economic sanctions have been severe, but nobody feels like invading the country. It wouldn't even get cleared within the UN either, sovereignty is still regarded as absolute by a lot of countries. Even if the UN would allow an intervention, there is still the enormous convential army that North Korea still retains.

If you are willing to live in complete isolation, you can basically do whatever you want inside your country.

My point is, the USA could very well obliterate NK nuclear facilities (possibly using nuclear missiles), if other countries in the region approve. Even the 5th land army can't defend anything against missiles. I don't believe it is that easy to hide secret bases. How do you hide trucks etc ? Also images can be analysed automatically, which means looking at every square inch is actually possible.

Besides, modern conventional war is all about air anyway. Note that I'm not talking about guerilla here. Interesting article : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Air_Force also lol @ this :

(click to show/hide)

Defections

Due to the political condition of North Korea, several North Korean pilots from the KPAF defected with their jets. These incidents include:

    On September 21, 1953, 21-year old No Kum-Sok, a senior lieutenant, flew his MiG-15 across to the South and landed at Kimpo Air Base near Seoul. Considered an intelligence bonanza, since this fighter plane was then the best the Communist bloc had. No was awarded the sum of $100,000 ($733,813 in 2006 dollars) and the right to reside in the United States. He is now a U.S. citizen.
    On August 5, 1960, a Shenyang J-5 landed at Kimpo, the second time a J-5 appeared in South Korea. This aircraft was kept by South Korea and was briefly flown in South Korean markings before being scrapped.
    In February 1983, Lee Ung-Pyong used a training exercise to defect and landed his Shenyang J-6 at an airfield in Seoul. According to the then common practice, he received a commission in the South Korean Air Force eventually becoming a colonel and taught at the South Korean academy until his death in 2002. He received a reward of 1.2 billion South Korean won.
    On May 23, 1996, Captain Lee Chul-Su defected with another Shenyang J-6, number 529, to Suwon Air Base, South Korea. He reportedly left behind his wife and two children. Lee was rewarded 480 million South Korean Won (approx. 400 thousand US dollars). He is now a colonel in the ROKAF and is an academic instructor.[27]

knowing that these people probably knew their family were hostages of the regime.

Finally, NK doesn't live in complete autarcy. They rely on external help for food mostly, and still export missiles (that is arguably the only export industry in NK).


Something interesting to think about is what would the international community do if a disaster similar to the Haiti earthquake happened to NK right now.

[Smoothrich]

I watched a NK documentary a year a go. A guy with a spycam went there as a tourist and recorded quite a bit. Man those computers in NK were kids learned programming...huge CRT(had to edit this, made a silly mistake) monitors with like 16bit screens and other stuff. After really watching that docshow I dont really take NK seriuslly at all. The whole place looked like it was 40 years behind from the rest of the world and everything that didnt, was just for show to let the Westerners know how awesome they are. Every person who worked there was like someone out of a Mr. Bean show. Streets were practically empty and there were people working in out of town shops who didnt probably get a single visitor in 3 months.

Sounds like a typical city/public school in a city in New Jersey

Except we probably have worse computers and 10 times the crime..

[Casimir]

Un wants to develop a cult similar to that of his father I'd say. He's in a weak position having just succeeded and wants to appease the generals, men who have far greater experience than him. The military exercises by SK and the US near disputed seas could be seen as provocative just as much as NK rhetoric. As a country which is economically, socially and technologically backwards I think they would stand little chance in conventional war, nuclear war would lead to their annihilation.

[Tibe]

(click to show/hide)

Un wants to develop a cult similar to that of his father I'd say. He's in a weak position having just succeeded and wants to appease the generals, men who have far greater experience than him. The military exercises by SK and the US near disputed seas could be seen as provocative just as much as NK rhetoric. As a country which is economically, socially and technologically backwards I think they would stand little chance in conventional war, nuclear war would lead to their annihilation.

To be honest I dont get the logic of the ruling family in NK. Un's and Il's etc. I assume they know that they are keeping their people as prisoners, compared to how the rest of the world is living. If one day the people in NK really will be free and see that their old dictators held them like animals for many generators they will burn their history and every bit of what is left of the dictators legacy, no matter how long it lasts, will be eventually washed away.

[Zlisch_The_Butcher]

To be honest I dont get the logic of the ruling family in NK. Un's and Il's etc. I assume they know that they are keeping their people as prisoners, compared to how the rest of the world is living. If one day the people in NK really will be free and see that their old dictators held them like animals for many generators they will burn their history and every bit of what is left of the dictators legacy, no matter how long it lasts, will be eventually washed away.

Everything will eventually be washed away, you live when you live, when you're dead who gives a fuck whether you're struck from the records of history.

[Teeth]

My point is, the USA could very well obliterate NK nuclear facilities (possibly using nuclear missiles), if other countries in the region approve. Even the 5th land army can't defend anything against missiles. I don't believe it is that easy to hide secret bases. How do you hide trucks etc ? Also images can be analysed automatically, which means looking at every square inch is actually possible.

Besides, modern conventional war is all about air anyway. Note that I'm not talking about guerilla here.

Finally, NK doesn't live in complete autarcy. They rely on external help for food mostly, and still export missiles (that is arguably the only export industry in NK).


Something interesting to think about is what would the international community do if a disaster similar to the Haiti earthquake happened to NK right now.

The conditionality you provide for the USA being able to obliterate nuclear facilities is the main problem precisely, very few countries would approve of using force within another country's border. Sovereignty is still unconditional for a lot of countries and especially for countries like Russia and China. Not the USA or any other country is willing to take the bad rep for doing such a thing. And that is just talking about regular missiles, nuclear missiles are not even a possibility.

If you put a nuclear base in a mining facility, who is going to see what goes on in there? Who is going to see the difference between trucks carrying iron ore and enriched uranium? Then there is also the fact that any country is allowed to use and produce nuclear energy and that any country is allowed to produce missiles. You can't bomb a country for doing any of those things and the link between the two is hard to establish. Case and point Iraq and Pakistan.

It think it is well possible to hide such a facility and it is also possible to make such a facility impervious to air assaults even with nuclear missiles. To protect from radiation you only need 60 cm of concrete. If a country is able to produce nuclear bombs, they are surely able to protect them from air assaults. You do in fact need a ground assault or some covert ops operation to take them down. Furthermore facilities will be spread out and there is not any guarantee that the destruction of the facilities will do anything more than slowing them down a little.

I didn't state that North Korea lives in complete autarky, they are willing to though. They don't let any amount of economic sanction stop them in their military pursuits. They do not live in complete autarky because the international community does not want the Nortk-Koreans to starve, but sanctioning is still severe.

[Lt_Anders]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9962442/North-Korea-timeline-of-escalating-threats.html

Basically the back and forth of NK/US since December of this past year.

[Molly]

My point is, the USA could very well obliterate NK nuclear facilities (possibly using nuclear missiles), if other countries in the region approve. Even the 5th land army can't defend anything against missiles. I don't believe it is that easy to hide secret bases. How do you hide trucks etc ? Also images can be analysed automatically, which means looking at every square inch is actually possible.

Besides, modern conventional war is all about air anyway. Note that I'm not talking about guerilla here. Interesting article : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Air_Force also lol @ this :

(click to show/hide)

Defections

Due to the political condition of North Korea, several North Korean pilots from the KPAF defected with their jets. These incidents include:

    On September 21, 1953, 21-year old No Kum-Sok, a senior lieutenant, flew his MiG-15 across to the South and landed at Kimpo Air Base near Seoul. Considered an intelligence bonanza, since this fighter plane was then the best the Communist bloc had. No was awarded the sum of $100,000 ($733,813 in 2006 dollars) and the right to reside in the United States. He is now a U.S. citizen.
    On August 5, 1960, a Shenyang J-5 landed at Kimpo, the second time a J-5 appeared in South Korea. This aircraft was kept by South Korea and was briefly flown in South Korean markings before being scrapped.
    In February 1983, Lee Ung-Pyong used a training exercise to defect and landed his Shenyang J-6 at an airfield in Seoul. According to the then common practice, he received a commission in the South Korean Air Force eventually becoming a colonel and taught at the South Korean academy until his death in 2002. He received a reward of 1.2 billion South Korean won.
    On May 23, 1996, Captain Lee Chul-Su defected with another Shenyang J-6, number 529, to Suwon Air Base, South Korea. He reportedly left behind his wife and two children. Lee was rewarded 480 million South Korean Won (approx. 400 thousand US dollars). He is now a colonel in the ROKAF and is an academic instructor.[27]

knowing that these people probably knew their family were hostages of the regime.

Finally, NK doesn't live in complete autarcy. They rely on external help for food mostly, and still export missiles (that is arguably the only export industry in NK).


Something interesting to think about is what would the international community do if a disaster similar to the Haiti earthquake happened to NK right now.

May I remind you of the fake proofs of WMD which included sat-pics causing quite some "irritations" in Iraq...