Korean cold war heating up again?

[okiN]

From this time on, the North-South relations will be entering the state of war and all issues raised between the North and the South will be handled accordingly

http://live.reuters.com/Event/North_Korea

What do you think, more hot air or have they finally lost it?

[Christo]

Interesting.

I'm not really an expert when it comes to NK, but didn't they provocate like this all the time during their existence?

Sure, this might be different.

[Miwiw]

Better not comment this or they gonna invade all our countries!!1

[okiN]

Interesting.

I'm not really an expert when it comes to NK, but didn't they provocate like this all the time during their existence?

Sure, this might be different.

Well, I'm obviously not an expert either, but from what I can remember the rhetoric they're using now is more heightened than before, especially since they've been making such a lot of angry noises in such a short span of time. It seems like the most likely result is that it'll all come to nothing, or at the most they'll shell some remote location or sink some South Korean ship again, but meh.

[Muki]

"sign" Well keep us updated okiN

[Nehvar]

Hard to say.  Un is young an inexperienced and probably a product of the indoctrination his predecessors have been putting the North Korean populace through for decades.  Americans, well, we're dumber than ever I think but we have a lot of guns.  The scary thing is no-one is sure of how this is going to play out right now.  I'm crossing my fingers in the hopes that no-one on this side does anything monumentally stupid and that Kim Jong Un realizes that a war would not benefit him in the slightest.  With any luck he'll have at least some sense of self-preservation.

[Molly]

There are basicly 2 general options, I guess:

1.) All bark, no bite. We don't really know what's going on inside the country and how the power axes are. Maybe Mr. K. needs to show off a little, rather directed inside than outside. This is all under the assumption that he is mentally sane and stable. If that's the case, he knows that SK and USA will pulverize him in case of a real attack. I even think China is going to stand by in that case with all their new found markets and moneyz...

2.) Mr. K. is actually believing his own propaganda and just lost it. Same was likely going on with Mr. H. at the end of WW2. Mr. H. said in his last days:"If we're going to leave the room, then we gonna make sure that we slam the door on our way out so hard that the whole world will shatter."
Assuming Mr K. is mentally ill and not stable, my guess is that he actually believe in the might of his armies and nukes. That would be bad for obvious reasons. Keeping in mind that NK has something like the 5th biggest military in the world.

I am hoping for 1.) obviously but imho the big questionmark right now is China. I really hope they are working behind the curtain to get this settled. And as long as SK/USA don't overreact, they will stand down and allow SK/USA to slap NK around a little if NK actually starts shooting.
Overreact as in "NK shoots a missile at some little unknown island and they get wiped of the earth." That would probably anger Beijing. Do not anger China!

Just my 2 cents...

[Latvian]

i wouldnt notice if korea's bomb each other.I think korea's are simple attentionwhores, when everyone stops giving a fuck about their every action they will most likely nuke themselves.

[Gnjus]

Hopefully some of their nukes will miss original targets and land somewhere in Latvia.

[Teeth]

I am always sceptical about whether the Kim Jongs actually have supreme power. I hope at least that there is an actual party behind their acts, or at least a group of people that advises him and that they are more like puppet rulers. If little Un actually has supreme power, this is of course incredibly dangerous. Any country having nukes is quite harmless because second strike deterrence still works, unless it is one man who controls the nukes. If he loses it, which is not unlikely for totalitarian leaders, deterrence loses its power and a lot of people are going to die. If a man who is regarded as somewhat of a god by his population decides to nuke Seoul, who is going to stop him?

The rhetoric is indeed quite strong. Revoking the armistice of 1953 is quite something and even though there have been tons of violent acts over the border this has never happened. I doubt though that North-Korea has such advanced nuclear material that they can actually hit anything besides South-Korea. It's probably just a tough guy act so show his populace and political elites that he isn't a green and weak ruler. Although I have no idea how the internal political situation looks like.

[Smoothrich]

I fully believe the North Korean military would depose Kim Jong Un in a heartbeat if he ever did any actions that would jeopardize all the sweet defense contracts, wasteful spending, and military excesses/comfortable lifestyles for officers and generals that they got going on in North Korea.

All the rhetoric to the professional, military/ruling class of NK probably just means big bonuses to their paychecks and more money at their pet projects.  Jong's father seemed to also understand how to get sweet Rhetoric 4 Cash from the west/China too by drumming up bullshit, backing down, then waiting for the international aid to help fill their coffers.  Seems like his son is incompetent at being corrupt so far.

[Tagora]

Blow this stinking world up into millions of pieces.  Put us out of our misery.

[Butan]

I fully believe the North Korean military would depose Kim Jong Un in a heartbeat if he ever did any actions that would jeopardize all the sweet defense contracts, wasteful spending, and military excesses/comfortable lifestyles for officers and generals that they got going on in North Korea.

Most of the military spending are dedicated to preparing for war. Surely, there is a lot of pro-reunification of Korea in their military top management. Deposing the rightful leader of a country just after he DoWs South Korea would be hard to cover up for the people. But I think you are right in saying that, there must be a military caste "exploiting" this cold war by maintaining a very good lifestyle and would feel disapointed if they actually had to risk their lives, but enough to try a coup d'etat? Dont think so. Or would require a helluva good motive and back-up story for the masses (and certainly external military support to crush loyal factions).

All the rhetoric to the professional, military/ruling class of NK probably just means big bonuses to their paychecks and more money at their pet projects.  Jong's father seemed to also understand how to get sweet Rhetoric 4 Cash from the west/China too by drumming up bullshit, backing down, then waiting for the international aid to help fill their coffers.  Seems like his son is incompetent at being corrupt so far.

You score some logic points. But what about the international aid ? I think I heard they receive cash to help their perpetual famine state and/or something else (and international aid is famous for being easily rerouted to greedy coffers...), but except that?
Also being embargoed by most "democratic" countries in the world and having to deal with diplomatic and economical penalties should balance those aids from neutral NGO and friendly countries.





What I would like to hear on this thread is what happened between now and some months ago, and I mean not general media bullshit, but really detailed informations.

What I see on the television is always "north korea provocating" and "irresponsible missile test" etc...

Would like to hear South Korea/USA list of provocation and irresponsible military actions too... There is never only ONE guilty where countries are concerned.

[Tibe]

NK is a upalupaland. Big mean faced soldiers marching by millions in a tiny prison they call a country. Never have those soldiers seen modern combat, their equipment is outdated and id even be suprised if they knew what the world acctually looks like. War with NK is sorta invetiable. Would happen sooner or later. Even China cant convice them now. I suppose the dictators there would rather go off with a bang, than start diplomacy. Ofcourse this is a viewpoint of a peasant like myself.

[Kafein]

What I don't personally understand is how can states develop nuclear weaponry in "secret bases" without all spy satellite services of the planet being aware and able to eliminate those sites.