I do not believe that cRPG will die to a player exodus. Many even current players have threatened to quit after QQing at nerfs --- they're still here.
Personally, I've been following Guild Wars 2 before I even knew cRPG existed as a mod in Warband. That game will suck me out of pretty much everything else (real life not excluded :-p).
That aside, cRPG is a unique style of gameplay. A previous post mentioned the 'depth' of the game. In all honesty, I think Warband/cPRG is rather shallow compared to many games, but certainly more deep than competitive FPS games. This brings us into a very niche market, which is unlikely to lose much of its player base.
I also do not think it is realistic to compare an Indie game's MOD to a AAA title. We're not even comparing game to game here... but mod to a triple-A title... Not exactly a level playing field, imo.
cRPG will die when its devs decide to kill it. I don't foresee large player shifts for any likely reason.