Well, After say year two shit starts getting real with ambushes. Then you have many diffrent merchants comming to and from your fortress. Then when migrants come, they may come with dragons. Which you should put MILES AWAY from your fort. They cause hell, for your fortress by super heating rock to brimstone and you can do nothing but watch your dwarfs walk over the area melting alive, let alone in a forested area they burn all the palce down causing a forest fire which useually kills five to six of your best dwarfs, so the dragons comming to your fort Balanced.
ALSO build above ground farms, unfortuantely you can not make wonderfull underground farms with plump helmets.. I know it sucks but its just an adaptation we all get use to with this game. I useually forge the patato easy in grasslands etc, and build in a mountan with a good plato I can turn into a large farm to sustatin the fort, also be carefull of the the food/drink levels. They need to be monotored very closely in the begining, if not well watch the fun.
So I guess yeah its balanced.
Also look at the race your playing as, as you can play as others.
PS Dwarves can make rifles just they are forgin to them, So get a good hold of a regular military etc before you start teaching them how to use them
PPS might be year three that ambushes happen a lot more but derp, I have not picked it up in a day or two so, Ill give you an awenser some time soon.