Leave or stay in the EU?

[Rhekimos]

Well the only way to truly understand what changes have to take place in order for the UK to fully self govern itself is to understand how the EU operates. Reading the Treaty of Lisbon would be a good start, this will obviously be a long transitional process, not something that happens overnight.

Don't forget the cost benefit analysis of changing EU laws and procedures already in place.

CBA = Benefit(from changing existing law) - Cost(of changing existing law)

If the above is positive, it's worth it to go ahead and change the law. If negative, it's not worth it.
And often a third variable will need to be added, namely if changing the existing law would deny access to the single market:

CBA = Benefit(from changing existing law) - Cost1(of changing existing law) - Cost2(of lost trade due to change)

For some reference, Norway has adopted roughly 75% of EU law to access the single market. So the cost benefit analysis of changing many existing EU based laws might fall to the negative quite quickly.

Everything you say is pure speculation. You don't need to be in the single market to trade with the EU. The UK had a deficit investing and trading with the EU in the single market. Please just admit you have no clue how the EU single market operates.

The exact nature of the future UK trading relationship with the EU is pure speculation. The nature of the single market is not. Neither are the barriers to trade and financial availability from outside. After all only 28 + 4 (or soon 27 + 5 or maybe 27 + 4) nations in the world have access to the single market.

And access to the single market means having free trade IN the single market. Not being able to trade WITH the single market.

And you'd have to NEGOTIATE A TRADE DEAL BEFORE that if you want to do better than default WTO rules.

What's so special about the deficit? Do you think think it's a huge part of EU GDP?
A couple of nations stand to lose quite a bit, but many EU nations not much at all. And they all decide together.
"EU exports to the UK would represent about 3 percent of EU GDP. Only for Ireland and Cyprus does the UK represent more than 10 percent of total exports."

Also:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36270203

And financial sector:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-financialservices-idUKKCN0ZH5TE
And generally single market:
https://next.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

[Grytviken]

Don't forget the cost benefit analysis of changing EU laws and procedures already in place.

CBA = Benefit(from changing existing law) - Cost(of changing existing law)

If the above is positive, it's worth it to go ahead and change the law. If negative, it's not worth it.
And often a third variable will need to be added, namely if changing the existing law would deny access to the single market:

CBA = Benefit(from changing existing law) - Cost1(of changing existing law) - Cost2(of lost trade due to change)

For some reference, Norway has adopted roughly 75% of EU law to access the single market. So the cost benefit analysis of changing many existing EU based laws might fall to the negative quite quickly.


The exact nature of the future UK trading relationship with the EU is pure speculation. The nature of the single market is not. Neither are the barriers to trade and financial availability from outside. After all only 28 + 4 (or soon 27 + 5 or maybe 27 + 4) nations in the world have access to the single market.

And access to the single market means having free trade IN the single market. Not being able to trade WITH the single market.

And you'd have to NEGOTIATE A TRADE DEAL BEFORE that if you want to do better than default WTO rules.

What's so special about the deficit? Do you think think it's a huge part of EU GDP?
A couple of nations stand to lose quite a bit, but many EU nations not much at all. And they all decide together.
"EU exports to the UK would represent about 3 percent of EU GDP. Only for Ireland and Cyprus does the UK represent more than 10 percent of total exports."

Also:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36270203

And financial sector:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-financialservices-idUKKCN0ZH5TE
And generally single market:
https://next.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

75% of what EU laws has Norway adopted? The problem with all this heresay is that it is all mostly misleading because of the very nature of the EU being strung behind 1000's and 1000's of regulations, procedures and laws that you would need to study for months to fully comprehend. Alot of these regulations are standard procedure in the rest of the world, they are nothing special.

Many of these EU laws and regulations come with binding agreements that outsource administrative duties to EU Commission administration districts which control their investitures for them while proposing new laws for the  EU parliament to vote on to keep their districts power expanding. The CBA Norway saves is from not having to  outsource the administrative costs to the EU, not by adopting the laws themselves.

http://www.aecr.eu/less-than-10-of-norways-laws-emanate-from-brussels/

“One of the aims of the report is to provide an overview of the scope of Norway’s set of agreements with the EU today. Under these agreements, Norway has incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation and has implemented them more effectively than many of the EU member states. At the same time, Norway is neither a member of the EU nor involved in the decision-making processes to any significant extent.”

What's special about the deficit is that the UK doesn't get to sign it's own trade deals within the single market yet still loses money overall after rebates from investing and trading within it, all the while having to adopt political, economic, industrial, judicial and administrative regulations just to retain it's membership.

The EU takes control of investment, economic development, trade, transportation development, banking regulations and thousands of administration positions which is why they need a small army of bureaucrats to operate.

[Falka]

You don't need to be in the single market to trade with the EU.

Without access to the single market London as a world's financial centre is probably finished.

It may well be that the Remain group are correct in their trade, business, economic and security arguments. However, I would rather be a poor freeman of England than a rich serf of Brussels.

Hard to argue with that.

[Grytviken]

Without access to the single market London as a world's financial centre is probably finished.

Why don't you tell us why you think that? Why would a nation that used to manage an empire that spanned across the entire Earth, which still has the 5th largest economy, not be able to manage it's own trade and government administration? It's a joke really if you think that outsourcing billions of dollars worth of administrative costs and jobs to the EU is cheaper and more efficient then doing it yourself.

[Leshma]

Chinese and USA companies use London as port to EU single market.

[Falka]

Why would a nation (...) not be able to manage it's own trade and government administration?

Erm... What?

[Rhekimos]

Brexit: Third big property fund halted

M&G Investments has followed two major finance firms and suspended trading in the UK's biggest commercial property fund following the Brexit vote.

Firms said high levels of uncertainty caused by the referendum have led to investors rushing to withdraw funds. M&G closed the doors on its £4.4bn fund after Aviva and Standard Life halted trading in similar schemes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36715806


Sterling's collapse is a big problem for a UK living beyond its means

With an annual global deficit of 7%, the post-Brexit turmoil is going to hit hard unless UK can balance income and expenditur

Consumers will get a shock. Inflation has stayed near zero for the most of the last two years, boosting the real value of relatively modest average wage rises. For many, higher inflation and static wages means no increase in real incomes or even a fall.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/05/sterlings-collapse-problematic-for-a-britain-living-beyond-its-means


Another new low for the pound

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36721689


Viewpoints: How low will sterling go?

$1.16 by the end-2016

Swiss bank Julius Baer has been ranked the industry's most accurate currency forecaster by financial data provider Bloomberg.

Its head of foreign exchange research, David Kohl, remains one of the biggest pessimists on the outlook for the pound and is instead betting on the US dollar making big gains.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36721278

[Paul]

Isn't a weak pound a chance for the British export economy - if there is any - to grow significantly?

[Leshma]

I honestly don't know what they are exporting, other than their culture and entertainment? Their car industry is owned by Germans. Fish and chips? That sure will make them billions.

It is hilarious how Americans project their situation at home on England and believe UK can do the same. Reality check. USA is warmongering beast that is terrorizing this Earth for decades. UK isn't colonial power anymore. They can't force anything on anyone anymore.

[Rhekimos]

Isn't a weak pound a chance for the British export economy - if there is any - to grow significantly?

A weak currency is great for a manufacturer, a country like China. And there's long been accusations on it of keeping the currency artificially weak.

But UK is not China. The economy is much more focused on services.

"The UK is the second largest exporter of services in the world behind the United States, and export-oriented service industries account for at least a third of our GDP. And the UK is now running a services trade surplus of 5% of GDP."

Leaving the single market would hit services significantly more than goods, since trade agreements have more barriers for services. And even that agreement would likely be years down the line.

[Falka]

Rhekimos, if I may ask, your interest in this stuff is professional?

[Rhekimos]

Rhekimos, if I may ask, your interest in this stuff is professional?

Sure. No, I don't work in finance. Though I'm very interested in the shape of things to come, on top of some interest in policy and economics in general.

And this is looking like a great future case study in both.

[Butan]

Admit* you got money invested on the economy failing! 

Anyway the number of sources you provide is staggering, gj.

[Rhekimos]

Thanks.

[Leshma]

Letter from Africa: Should the UK join the African Union?