Native is as strong as ever in NA. I can't speak for EU, but Native might even be stronger this year than it was last year. Throughout the years, Native has had a relatively high turnover of players when compared to cRPG. There's only a few names that are repeated more than months at a time, and the same goes for clans (with the exception of BkS, maybe) in Native.
I assume after playing Native with greater frequency in the last month that the vast majority of players are extremely new- even in duel and battle, game modes where the more experienced players used to congregate. cRPG is different. Yes, there are only a minority of oldshits left, but they communicate more amongst themselves than the Native players do, having fewer servers to choose from.
This is a legacy culture. The average cRPG player has no trouble consistently topping Native scoreboards, even when clans are involved. This is because knowledge of the game and how best to use it's mechanics were passed down with greater frequency. In addition, cRPG players have always dealt with a larger variety of builds- constantly changing over the years, which means their skills are more developed. It is easier to deal with a single set of variables than an ever changing array.
The learning curve for Warband is hard (when compared to, say, Counter-Strike or Chivalry) but the learning curve for cRPG is flat out ridiculous.
Clans (with one or two exceptions) have pretty much degenerated into loose groups of buddies. This was the vehicle that was once relied upon to induct new players into the cRPG killing fields. It is gone. Instead, we have a couple dozen individuals who make inside jokes and are full of caustic criticism. And yes, I remember the Alt-X days of old- recall that the behavior of that sort was the exception rather than the rule.
These are not rose tinted glasses. The game itself has improved by leaps and bounds, and the super serious community of old had its fair share of dysfunction. Just a different brand of dysfunction.
So what does Native have on cRPG, beyond marketing and a significantly larger community? It has populated deathmatch, duel, and siege servers. It's not that there aren't players out there who would find the mod fun and be willing to bear the learning curve, even revel in it.
It's that there's simply no real opportunity to learn.
Learning a new skill requires constant feedback, and Battle does not provide that. What we need is thriving duel, deathmatch, and siege community. Duel for the player to learn the basics. Deathmatch to have fun while dealing with multiple opponents, and siege to bring it all together. With these game modes combined, you have a perfect newbie boot camp that can still be fun, for anyone willing to run through it.
Find a way to promote these game modes and raise them to prominence in this community and you will reinvigorate the mod.
Helping new players out, even when they appear rude or idiotic doesn't hurt, either.