Average upkeep costs - how to calculate?

[Baskakov_Dima]

I have an idea, but I am a noob, so I want you to help me. The idea is a way to balance your equipment in terms of money.

First, you play cRPG and write how much do you earn each round in a specific Excel-file. You analize it: build a graph, calculate mean, standard deviation etc. So, you know know average EARNINGS PER ROUND.

It is not required to be a professional in economy to understand, that they must be more than or at least equal your average upkeep costs. The only question is, how do I calculate the upkeep costs per round? I have seen some info about 4% chance to brake per round. Is that true? Does it work? If not, how?

UPD: Best answer was that upkeep costs are 7% of total gear cost. Looming items does NOT change the upkeep. Most items have 3% chance to break, but weapons' chance is determined by WPF. 1 WPF will result in like 11% chance, and 140 WPF in like 2,5%. For melee weapon best melee WPF is used, for example, if you have 140 2h WPF and 1 polearms WPF, you will have 2,5% chance to break for polearms, and for ranged weapons you use weapon-related WPF. Ammo uses much higher chance. "Upkeep dice" is thrown each minute you play (each in-game tick).

So the main formula of break-even equipment cost for battles and sieges (allowing you to keep the same amount of money in long run) is (AverageMultiplier*23809), and for average multiplier of 1.9375, that "very average" player will have, your break-even cost is like 46130.

It is still unknown how does upkeep work on DTV mode.

[IR_Kuoin]

Well you can see on the cRPG site what your gears total repair cost will be. The % on weapons decreases per WPF you have, armor is normal.

[Moncho]

Are stickies in this forum invisible?

Maintenance

There's a chance every minute for items you're wearing to break up resulting in them getting reduced stats until they are repaired. By default items will automatically be repaired when you have enough money. On average player can hold gear worth of roughly 50,000 and break even (Source: http://forum.c-rpg.net/index.php/topic,8400.0.html). This is a long term average though, and you should have a considerable reserve of money before trying to run around in gear of that price.

For weaponry wpf dictates the breaking chance while other items have a static chance which supposedly is somewhat higher for arrows and bolts. For melee weapons highest melee skill is chosen, so for example using a long spear with 1 polearm wpf while having 120 wpf in two handed uses the 120 wpf for breaking. For ranged this kind of mechanic isn't in effect, and bow breaking chance in determined by archery wpf etc.

Tears of Destiny at http://forum.c-rpg.net/index.php/topic,9245.0.html says that:

1wpf is about 11% [chance of breaking] where as 140 is 2.5% [chance of breaking] so it does make a difference.

[Macropus]

Man, don't bother with that. Just see if you lose or gain money in the long run and then adjust your equipment accordingly.

Calculating the precise upkeep is hard because some items (arrows) break more often and some items' (weapons) breaking chance is dependant on your weapon points in that weapon class.

Speaking about gaining gold, I think 30k of total equipment cost will get you making money, if you don't use arrows ofc. I myself earn gold with 40k equipment cost, but it all depends on your average gold multi ingame and how often you get valour.

[CrazyCracka420]

It's hard to say for sure because you have a 4% chance of upkeep (for every xp tick on the minute mark), but it's out of infinity.  So you can technically get upkeep costs every round 100 times in a row (though I've yet to see anything so drastic, usually 4 or 5 rounds in a row is the most I've ever been hit for repairs on something, usually it's like 2). 

[Baskakov_Dima]

OK. So, the point is to calculate average money per minute - I now got it.

So, every minute I "pay" 4% of my upkeep cost for non-ammo and non-weapon items. So, average money per XP tick must be on average more than 0,4%(chance to break)*0,7%(upkeep)=0,28% of my total armor cost. I can then add average arrows' cost if I am an archer (it will not affect things too hard, I guess) and weapon's average upkeep cost, that does not change at least too quickly. This is the way of calculation.

The last question is the chance of breaking on DTV. How is it counted?

[WITCHCRAFT]

Don't bother with the excel sheet, you will need to record thousands of hours for a legit average to appear.

I usually go for 1.5k-2k max upkeep cost on my characters, and will break even on gold if I am stuck on x1. I'll switch to expensive gear if I am bored of my regular loadout or I have x5 for a while.

[Panoply]

WaltF4's post is great but a little outdated since upkeep was adjusted in 0.231. It used to be 5% repair cost and 4% break chance, but this was changed.

Repair costs are 7% of the item cost, and chance of breaking is 3% for most items. This means that every minute you will pay an average of 0.07*0.03*equipment cost=0.0021*equipment cost. If you're looking for the break-even point you need to equate that with your average earnings per minute which will be 50 gold * average multiplier. So,

Break-even equipment cost = 50 gold * average multipler / 0.0021

If you're an absolutely average player with a 50% chance to win each round and never get valour, your average multiplier converges on 1.9375 in the long run. Therefore, your break-even equipment cost is roughly 46131 gold.

You can record all your earnings to get a more personalized value, but to save you the effort, just take this figure and apply the following modifying factors to get a rough estimate of what you can carry on you without losing money.

Modifying factors:
1)I don't know the exact relationship between wpf and chance to break except that apparently at 1 wpf it's 11% and at 140 wpf it's 2.5%. So you can roughly estimate that 120-125 wpf is around 3% break chance like most other items. So, if you're using weapons with less than that wpf, then you need to adjust your break-even equipment cost down, and vice-versa if you have more than 120-125 wpf. At 1 wpf, you should adjust the break-even equipment cost calculated from the above formula down by (11% break chance-3% breakchance )*7% repair cost*weapon cost = 0.0056*weapon cost

2)If you're using arrows and bolts which are known to have a much higher break chance, then again you need to adjust your break-even equipment cost down. I don't play ranged much so I don't know the exact break chance but it seems to be ~10%/minute. Anyone actually know?

3)If you are such a bad player that you can actually bring your team down and your chance of winning each round is less than 50%, then your average multiplier goes down, and thereby so does your break-even equipment cost. If you are a great player that not only has a >50% win rate but also gets valour, your average multiplier can be much higher than 1.9375 and as a result, you can afford to carry around much more expensive equipment. Try adjusting the above formula.

Hope that helps.

[CrazyCracka420]

Nice maths (not being sarcastic).  I'd suggest not trying to "break even" but try to accumulate money over time as infantry.  I'd probably recommend using 20-25k total gear costs to still make money (you can easily go 15-20k if you're not using really expensive equipment, which you don't need to be a useful/good player). 

[Baskakov_Dima]

WaltF4's post is great but a little outdated since upkeep was adjusted in 0.231. It used to be 5% repair cost and 4% break chance, but this was changed.

Repair costs are 7% of the item cost, and chance of breaking is 3% for most items. This means that every minute you will pay an average of 0.07*0.03*equipment cost=0.0021*equipment cost. If you're looking for the break-even point you need to equate that with your average earnings per minute which will be 50 gold * average multiplier. So,

Break-even equipment cost = 50 gold * average multipler / 0.0021

If you're an absolutely average player with a 50% chance to win each round and never get valour, your average multiplier converges on 1.9375 in the long run. Therefore, your break-even equipment cost is roughly 46131 gold.

You can record all your earnings to get a more personalized value, but to save you the effort, just take this figure and apply the following modifying factors to get a rough estimate of what you can carry on you without losing money.

Modifying factors:
1)I don't know the exact relationship between wpf and chance to break except that apparently at 1 wpf it's 11% and at 140 wpf it's 2.5%. So you can roughly estimate that 120-125 wpf is around 3% break chance like most other items. So, if you're using weapons with less than that wpf, then you need to adjust your break-even equipment cost down, and vice-versa if you have more than 120-125 wpf. At 1 wpf, you should adjust the break-even equipment cost calculated from the above formula down by (11% break chance-3% breakchance )*7% repair cost*weapon cost = 0.0056*weapon cost

2)If you're using arrows and bolts which are known to have a much higher break chance, then again you need to adjust your break-even equipment cost down. I don't play ranged much so I don't know the exact break chance but it seems to be ~10%/minute. Anyone actually know?

3)If you are such a bad player that you can actually bring your team down and your chance of winning each round is less than 50%, then your average multiplier goes down, and thereby so does your break-even equipment cost. If you are a great player that not only has a >50% win rate but also gets valour, your average multiplier can be much higher than 1.9375 and as a result, you can afford to carry around much more expensive equipment. Try adjusting the above formula.

Hope that helps.

Thank you for all that info, I will use it all! The only thing, that was not covered, are chances on DTV. Are they the same?
Actually, I now play DTV, and if my team is good, it does not play a role if I wear 50k, 10k or 20k gear, I always get more money on average than I lose. But for battles and siege I want to make an Excel file on my laptop, that is always near my PC when I play, so I don't switch from the game window. I will write there all my victories and losses, round time etc.
When I will undertand, that it works, I will make sample table and put it in guides section.

[Zaar]

WaltF4's post is great but a little outdated since upkeep was adjusted in 0.231. It used to be 5% repair cost and 4% break chance, but this was changed.

Repair costs are 7% of the item cost, and chance of breaking is 3% for most items. This means that every minute you will pay an average of 0.07*0.03*equipment cost=0.0021*equipment cost. If you're looking for the break-even point you need to equate that with your average earnings per minute which will be 50 gold * average multiplier. So,

Break-even equipment cost = 50 gold * average multipler / 0.0021

If you're an absolutely average player with a 50% chance to win each round and never get valour, your average multiplier converges on 1.9375 in the long run. Therefore, your break-even equipment cost is roughly 46131 gold.

Wow, thought it would be less, like even 35k or so. Nice.

[Panoply]

Yeah, I would try to mostly play at equipment costs at less than your break-even point. This goes doubly if you don't have a lot of gold stashed already. These numbers apply to the long run, while in the short term, fluctuations in your fortunes could mean that you can lose plenty of money even if you're below the break-even point.

Sorry, I don't actually know how the exp/gold works in DTV since I don't play DTV.

[Baskakov_Dima]

Added good replies to my first post here, still no idea about how does upkeep work on DTV.