I wanted to share this quite sober and realistic analysis of situation, for both Russians and Ukrainians to see. Mostly because the article(s) is quite objective about the facts, and because it explains at least partially US point of view.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2015/01/22/u-s-should-stay-out-of-the-russo-ukrainian-quarrel-a-bakers-dozen-reasons-why-the-conflict-in-ukraine-is-not-americas-business-part-one/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/seven-reasons-why-us-shou_b_6763732.htmlHere are some highlights:
1) Ukraine isn’t important geopolitically.
It might come as a shock to Kiev’s strongest supporters, but Ukraine is not the center of the universe.
Ukraine is largely irrelevant to American security. The United States was founded, developed, and became a superpower all the while Ukraine was ruled from Moscow. Kiev’s future matters more to Europe, but even that connection is limited.
2) Russia matters more than Ukraine to America.
In January Russia signed an agreement with Iran for expanded defense cooperation, reportedly including long-delayed delivery of the S300 missile air defense system. This weapon could greatly complicate plans for an American or Israeli military strike on Iran.
This might be just the start. The Putin government could arm Syria with advanced missiles, defend Tehran against American and European pressure over its nuclear program, impede U.S. logistical operations in Afghanistan, provide advanced arms to North Korea, and transfer military technologies to China. Worse, Russia is pursuing a closer relationship with China; should that evolve into a serious anti-American axis, despite serious differences between the two states, much harm could result.
4) Washington never guaranteed Ukraine’s security.
In short, Washington offered Ukraine no meaningful commitment to do anything practical to help Kiev in any circumstance. If the Clinton administration had intended to defend Ukraine, the former would have presented a treaty for Senate approval or forced through Kiev’s accession to NATO. But Washington was no more ready to go to war for Ukraine in 1994 than in 2014. Allied politicians offered high-sounding rhetoric rather than practical commitments. The Ukrainian government accepted what it could get, which was just a piece of paper.
5) Vladimir Putin is not einstein and Russia is not chocolate chip cookie Germany (or Stalin’s Soviet Union).
6) There’s no genocide.
America must act to stop Russia from slaughtering helpless Ukrainians, some of Kiev’s most fervent advocates argue. The claim has emotional power, but is false. There have been an estimated 4800 deaths in the combat in the east. It’s a tragic toll, but includes Ukrainian separatists and loyalists, and Russians. When it comes to wars, that casualty list barely counts
8) Moscow has more at stake in Ukraine than the West has and will act accordingly.
In fact, the status of Ukraine matters far more to Moscow than to Washington. America has no interests of comparable strength regarding Ukraine. Imagine if the Soviet Union had proposed bringing Mexico into the Warsaw Pact after having helped oust a democratically elected government allied with America. Washington's reaction would have been swift, strong, and exceedingly hostile.
9) Alliances should enhance U.S. security, not provide foreign charity.
Adding Ukraine (and Georgia) would be even more dangerous. Both have been at war with Russia. Both have had irresponsible political leadership. Both have an incentive to entangle the globe's superpower in their territorial disputes. Bringing them into NATO would dramatically degrade U.S. security by transforming minor conflicts irrelevant to Washington into potential military disputes between America and Russia.
10) A negotiated settlement is the only solution.
Ukrainians insist that Ukraine must be free to decide its own future. Yes, after the Second Coming, when the lion has lain down with the lamb. After people representing all the world's religions, ethnic groups, political philosophies, races, and everything else have joined together to sing "Kumbaya" around a global bonfire. [/b]After men and women again live in the Garden of Eden.
There is little reason to expect a Russia in crisis to be democratic and docile. Greater nationalism at home and adventurism abroad would be more likely. Western-style liberals would not be the natural beneficiaries of an implosion at home.
America and Europe should initiate discussions with Moscow, using sanctions as a negotiating tool rather than an endless penalty. A ceasefire should be policed by international monitors. Russia should acknowledge Ukraine's sovereignty and end military support for the rebels. Kiev should halt military operations and formalize further devolution of power on the Donbas. Ukraine should declare its military neutrality, endorsed by the West. Russia should accept Kiev's economic orientation both west and east.
Of course, Moscow also could say no. However, such an agreement would meet Putin's security concerns and halt Russia's economic slide. He is an authoritarian, not a fool. And if a diplomatic resolution is impossible, it is better to find out now than to do so only after suffering through an extended Cold War lite.
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