Okay, based upon that speculation chain, then I would speculate that you are on the opposite end of a server/client sync issue that I've speculated since WSE2 where a ranged weapon will hit a horse and be seen sticking out of it in the client view, but then suddenly dissappear and be found on the ground in the direction it was shot after the server sent back "no, you missed".
In that speculative theory, your client would tell you that the arrow missed, but then the server would tell your client, "no, you got hit",