Someone did the math, If you do max count every time, you have 1/4 chance to win 1 prize. But not everyone buys max tickets so that probably goes up a bit more. Can't remember the location of the math.
When I calculated it 2k players participated in lottery and an average of 100 tickets was bought. Chance to win is now higher since less players pariticipate now but also the prices are lower. And the distribution of the tickets doesn't matter at all only the amount of tickets you have. If you have 500 tickets and five other guys have 1000 tickets the chances of winning are the same even if one guy has 500 and the other 4 guys have to share the rest.
The chance of winning
one price last lottery if you bought
max count tickets was about
48%.
If the degression of participants and thus the total number of tickets bought goes down as countinously as before, this is a very inaccurate guess, let's say down to 85,000 (total would be 8,500,000 obviously),
the chance of winning (again only one price and max count tickets are bought) would be
60%.
But even if the chance is above 50% one has to consider that most prices won't really cover the money you spend so do as you did before.
Poll