Soon, interesting players will leave, and we will keep only the no-lifers and kiddos.
Strangely enough, this is false.
Well, depends on how you define 'interesting players' I suppose.
But I see a lot of the same people playing now who were playing 7-8 months ago. Even though virtually nothing meaningful has been added to the game in all that time. Defend the Village.. but that seems fairly recent, and is only occasionally playable what with the server-kicks, half-xp / no-xp, etc. Otherwise.. maybe a few new weapons, but a good number of old ones have disappeared too. Personally, I liked the mod better in its earlier stages.
To be blunt, enough people will keep playing cRPG simply because it's the only Warband multiplayer mod where you can level up. Unless there's ever a competitor - and I doubt at this point that someone would take the time to develop one - it will likely enjoy considerable longevity even if Strategus never returns. And even if the perpetual tweaking in the name of 'balance' never ends (probably it won't) despite how badly this detracts from the gaming experience.