Probably bannerlord since what really hooked me about warband was the combat system and from the small amount of attention I have been paying it looks like the focus for donkey crew's project has been slowly shifting away from a more combat oriented arena type game to something more alongside open world, survival, crafting games, something like life in feudal, reign of kings etc and I haven't seen combat come even close to warband level in any of them and I think it would be quite difficult to do. But that is just the impression I gotten reading the forums for 10 minutes every month or so.
Still really looking forward to both of them though and will definitely try out them both.