Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Butan]

So, you think he had to:
1) Recognize Crimea as russian and provoke another maidan
2) Stop anti-terrorist operation, let separatists do whatever they want and provoke full scale civil war on half of our territories
3) Ignore russian actions
4) Tell that our sovereignty is not important and shouldn't be defended
Does it sound better, really?

Poroshenko has very difficult task and I'm not sure if he can accomplish it, but I'm quite sure that among other candidates he has best chances.

Serr, you must know there is a middle ground between encouraging hostility toward Russia using nationalist speech, and offering total and unconditionnal surrender of Crimea and East regions to Russia.

The first declaration of a president if often a clue to what he will be doing next. If he wanted to use the diplomatic path, he wouldnt have jumped off like that, he even implied war quite directly.
In doing so, he is increasing the chance it happens. He is being as irresponsible and populist as the previous interim president.
Maybe it is just a bluff, and then he will send diplomats behind the curtains, offering solutions, but I doubt it.

[serr]

The first declaration of a president if often a clue to what he will be doing next. If he wanted to use the diplomatic path, he wouldnt have jumped on Russia throat like that, he even implied war quite directly.

It seems I missed something, could you give a link please?

Also, he is not president yet. While it is already clear he won, not all votes have been counted yet.

[Vovka]

a few months ago was a ban on the import into Russia of his chocolates, the ban lifted so Poroshenko and Putin has deal already long time ago. At best, he would sell his business in Russia (3 candy factory) friend of Putin, he already swear what he will do it right after election as president. At worst, a couple parts of the Ukraine ^^

[Kuujis]

Serr, you must know there is a middle ground between encouraging hostility toward Russia using nationalist speech, and offering total and unconditionnal surrender of Crimea and East regions to Russia.

The first declaration of a president if often a clue to what he will be doing next. If he wanted to use the diplomatic path, he wouldnt have jumped off like that, he even implied war quite directly.
In doing so, he is increasing the chance it happens. He is being as irresponsible and populist as the previous interim president.
Maybe it is just a bluff, and then he will send diplomats behind the curtains, offering solutions, but I doubt it.

Lets imagine Butan, that you have a flat of 6 rooms.
Lets imagine you exchanges 1 room of yours for 1 of mine (I own a flat of 60 rooms on the same floor). Call that room you got "Crimea" *HINT No1*.
Lets imagine, that after some years I say "fuck this law, fuck this document, I got more powar, more rooms, I take mine "Crimea" room back". Because you started listening to "wrong natssszsseeee muzik".
Lets imagine, that you are angry about that.
Then, while you are having a conflict with your room mates, who have been living with you in other two rooms - I promise them, that I will defend them from you if they are oppressed and give them some fighting gear and so on.
Lets imagine, that once you get your act together - I start demanding, that you take a middle ground with the two room-mates and decrease their loan, because "THERE IS A MIDDLE GROUND AND YOUR ARE BAD AND YOU LISTEN TO WRONG MUZIK". You have to give them discount. Because I tell so. And your neighbor from french flat says you have to take the middle ground too. And also - fuck laws, they live there so they have rights.

THIS is how you sound Butan 

Its like - a shopkeeper says " this wine is 10e each", you steal three bottles from him, and tell him "lets come to a diplomatic agreement. I will keep one bottle free of charge, will drink half of other ones and you will have to let me finish them later if I choose so". What kind of diplomacy would you expect here?

[Oberyn]

Svoboda is the only populist/nationalist party? Am I reading your post right?...
Its good that the most obviously bad political entity are shunned in the presidential election of Ukraine, but its not all.


First declarations of the new president who want peace in the east : never recognise Crimea as Russian, new anti-terrorist operation to de-occupy Ukraine, Russian to send back their soldiers in their barracks, Ukraine to prepare to defend their sovereignty...

Such diplomatic skill, much peace, so "a new way of living" 

Serr was right in predicting Poroshenko victory, but from the few I've read from him in the past hours, he doesnt seem to be neutral nor to want peace at all. It looks like an even stronger continuation of what the interim government did in the past weeks. Its not looking good at all.

Do you have those goal posts on portable wheels, you dishonest fuck?

[Vovka]

(click to show/hide)

Lets imagine Butan, that you have a flat of 6 rooms.
Lets imagine you exchanges 1 room of yours for 1 of mine (I own a flat of 60 rooms on the same floor). Call that room you got "Crimea" *HINT No1*.
Lets imagine, that after some years I say "fuck this law, fuck this document, I got more powar, more rooms, I take mine "Crimea" room back". Because you started listening to "wrong natssszsseeee muzik".
Lets imagine, that you are angry about that.
Then, while you are having a conflict with your room mates, who have been living with you in other two rooms - I promise them, that I will defend them from you if they are oppressed and give them some fighting gear and so on.
Lets imagine, that once you get your act together - I start demanding, that you take a middle ground with the two room-mates and decrease their loan, because "THERE IS A MIDDLE GROUND AND YOUR ARE BAD AND YOU LISTEN TO WRONG MUZIK". You have to give them discount. Because I tell so. And your neighbor from french flat says you have to take the middle ground too. And also - fuck laws, they live there so they have rights.

THIS is how you sound Butan 

Its like - a shopkeeper says " this wine is 10e each", you steal three bottles from him, and tell him "lets come to a diplomatic agreement. I will keep one bottle free of charge, will drink half of other ones and you will have to let me finish them later if I choose so". What kind of diplomacy would you expect here?

Lets imagine what u own me 100 $ and didnt want to return them
Lets imagine what i take rocket launcher and shoot in u several times in mall in hoping to get you, in the name of justice
All dead is just unpleasant side effect


it is not normal when people take video of bombardment from their gardens

[BlindGuy]

I like an anology as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend even for a second that Putin is acting for the benefit of anyone other than Putin.

He wanted ports and resources, he took them, its over. UKR should just put some talc on their hurt butts and move on, they wont gain anything from fighting RUSS, and the majority of the international community did not even know where to point on the map when looking for UKR, UKR is sure as shit not going to get any real or meaningful international aid in this situation.

The only result of fighting RUSS would be that UKR loses more land and the lives of many people.

[Butan]

Kuujis, diplomacy doesnt work like that. Your analogy sounds like a kindergarten way of solving problems. "He stole my room! I dont want to listen to him until he gives it back!"

When 2 countries clashes, you can either use war or diplomacy.

If you want to use diplomacy you dont just claim "I'm the victim here, so give me justice!", you gather people of the 2 sides together and you try to find a solution.
If you want war, you can either directly dec them, or be autistically closed to diplomatic attempts (like Russia, true) and wait for the heat to increase and try to pick up the pieces.



I would have had way more respect to Poroshenko if his first declarations would have been simple and neutral hand gesture toward Russia. Yes, stupid I know, but one have to extend his hand first, if one want to reach peace really. Russia and Ukraine are both stubborn and stupid if none tries to reach to the other.

It seems I missed something, could you give a link please?

I have only a link of an "average" french media. I tried to look for links to original statement but I didnt have success: http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-petro-poroshenko-que-les-troupes-russes-retournent-dans-leurs-casernes-13-03-2014-1800324_24.php

French text :

(click to show/hide)

Le sujet de la Crimée provoque chez lui, comme chez la plupart des Ukrainiens, une immense émotion : si l'impasse persiste, Petro Poroshenko n'exclut pas le pire. Même si, d'un ton triste, il avoue ne pas souhaiter la guerre, il déclare avec fermeté : "Si l'escalade continue en dépit de toutes les sanctions ou menaces de sanctions, nous n'excluons pas que cette guerre froide prenne la forme d'une guerre complète." C'est-à-dire ? "Que l'armée ukrainienne défende son territoire." Alors, ajoute-t-il en soupirant, "se posera véritablement la question des garanties que nous ont données la France, la Grande-Bretagne et les États-Unis concernant notre sécurité."

English google translate :

(click to show/hide)

The subject of the Crimean provokes in him, as in most Ukrainians, a huge emotion if the impasse persists, Petro Poroshenko does not exclude the worst. Although a sad tone, he admits to not want war, he said firmly: "If the escalation continues despite all sanctions or threats of sanctions, we do not exclude that the Cold War takes the form of a full-scale war. "That is to say? "What the Ukrainian army to defend its territory." Then he added with a sigh, "truly pose the question of guarantees given to us by France, Britain and the United States to our security."

[Kuujis]

Kuujis, diplomacy doesnt work like that. Your analogy sounds like a kindergarten way of solving problems. "He stole my room! I dont want to listen to him until he gives it back!"

When 2 countries clashes, you can either use war or diplomacy.

If you want to use diplomacy you dont just claim "I'm the victim here, so give me justice!", you gather people of the 2 sides together and you try to find a solution.
If you want war, you can either directly dec them, or be autistically closed to diplomatic attempts (like Russia, true) and wait for the heat to increase and try to pick up the pieces.
<...>

France suffers a serious lack of russian neighborhood IMO. Giving putler carte blanche (pardon me french) means he gets what he wants. There is NO point in diplomacy with a country or a leader who is not able to honor his word and stick to ones promises. Whats the point? Its easier living with an open enemy nearby than with a trecherous putler, who will in 5 years pick another region to annex, after his crimea BS becomes generally accepted.

You are a coward Butan because you cannot/will not stand for your principles OR those principles are the same that led to WWII.

And its not even a "french running from combat" joke.

Lets imagine what u own me 100 $ and didnt want to return them
Lets imagine what i take rocket launcher and shoot in u several times in mall in hoping to get you, in the name of justice
All dead is just unpleasant side effect


it is not normal when people take video of bombardment from their gardens

I do not follow your analogy... You want to tell me, that Ukraine forces fighting separatists are shooting innocent people in the mall?

Its not normal, when one has to fight separatists funded and encouraged by neighboring country, which pretends to be friendly. Thats for sure, can't argue with that.

[Butan]

Giving putler carte blanche (pardon me french) means he gets what he wants.

You are confusing, like serr, total surrender and attempts at diplomacy 

Being a coward also include hiding behind walls: in that case self-righteousness and NATO. How I see it from here is that Poroshenko feel confident that he can have military support quick, joining all diplomatic associations in the coming weeks he can, and not attempt any serious diplomatical options because he dont want to give Putin anything, anything! (not everything). Even if that means prolonging the civil war and doing exactly the opposite of what he said to get elected.



WW2 parallels and french jokes, so funny, witty one.

[serr]

Being a coward also include hiding behind walls: in that case self-righteousness and NATO. How I see it from here is that Poroshenko feel confident that he can have military support quick, joining all diplomatic associations in the coming weeks he can, and not attempt any serious diplomatical options because he dont want to give Putin anything, anything! (not everything). Even if that means prolonging the civil war and doing exactly the opposite of what he said to get elected.

http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-petro-poroshenko-que-les-troupes-russes-retournent-dans-leurs-casernes-13-03-2014-1800324_24.php

More links please and not from march if possible

[Kuujis]

You are confusing, like serr, total surrender and attempts at diplomacy 

Being a coward also include hiding behind walls: in that case self-righteousness and NATO. How I see it from here is that Poroshenko feel confident that he can have military support quick, joining all diplomatic associations in the coming weeks he can, and not attempt any serious diplomatical options because he dont want to give Putin anything, anything! (not everything). Even if that means prolonging the civil war and doing exactly the opposite of what he said to get elected.

WW2 parallels and french jokes, so funny, witty one.

Oh ... if I was the only one with the parallels ... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-27497899

Don't muddle the definition of a proper coward. You know full well that NATO by definition and setup goals has minimal business in Ukraine, yet support for them is nearly unanimous. You don't stand up to a bully - you will end up being bullied again.

Tell me, what kind of an idiot would agree to cede ANYTHING to a country which does not give a damn about its promises? Whats THE POINT? They WILL NOT KEEP THEIR PART OF THE BARGAIN if they see any gains in breaking it. While I prefer diplomacy to any killing/war - what is the point if you WILL END UP HAVING TO KILL or surrender at some point anyway. Prolonging the agony? You suffer from the same mentality pre-ww2 Europe suffered from: let him have his small chunk, he will be happy with it and will stop. How many lessons do you need? 

[Butan]

More links please and not from march if possible

I wait for next declarations, like you, until then I post what Poroshenko said on the situation  its a bit old, true, you can consider that bit as outdated and invalid.

The first days of a president being elected can be blurry, I dont lose all hope on Poroshenko yet, but even if you take into account only what he said in the last days, its not good for peace in Ukraine, except if you count peace as total obliteration of the unrest movement.

I still have hope, that he will not do everything that he said, but that he will stay true to his presidential leitmotiv and show encouraging sign of a change of political direction.

Oh ... if I was the only one with the parallels ... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-27497899

Don't muddle the definition of a proper coward. You know full well that NATO by definition and setup goals has minimal business in Ukraine, yet support for them is nearly unanimous. You don't stand up to a bully - you will end up being bullied again.

Tell me, what kind of an idiot would agree to cede ANYTHING to a country which does not give a damn about its promises? Whats THE POINT? They WILL NOT KEEP THEIR PART OF THE BARGAIN if they see any gains in breaking it. While I prefer diplomacy to any killing/war - what is the point if you WILL END UP HAVING TO KILL or surrender at some point anyway. Prolonging the agony? You suffer from the same mentality pre-ww2 Europe suffered from: let him have his small chunk, he will be happy with it and will stop. How many lessons do you need? 

"It was that we were both mired into coolly and correctly ignoring one another. It could only make our quarrel worse, and yet I could not bend enough to try any other way. It seemed to me I had already made enough efforts to mend things and been rebuffed. I wanted him to show sign of wishing to make things right between us. But he did not.
So days of misery trickled past."

[Tibe]

(click to show/hide)

Kuujis, diplomacy doesnt work like that. Your analogy sounds like a kindergarten way of solving problems. "He stole my room! I dont want to listen to him until he gives it back!"
When 2 countries clashes, you can either use war or diplomacy.
If you want to use diplomacy you dont just claim "I'm the victim here, so give me justice!", you gather people of the 2 sides together and you try to find a solution.
If you want war, you can either directly dec them, or be autistically closed to diplomatic attempts (like Russia, true) and wait for the heat to increase and try to pick up the pieces.
I would have had way more respect to Poroshenko if his first declarations would have been simple and neutral hand gesture toward Russia. Yes, stupid I know, but one have to extend his hand first, if one want to reach peace really. Russia and Ukraine are both stubborn and stupid if none tries to reach to the other.

I think it is u who is confused here Butan. U cant negotiate with Russia the way u negotiate with other normal countries. Like I said before their way of diplomacy is pretty damn blunt and every deal they make is always extremely in their favor. And they rarely settle for anything less. And how do u think this "extending the hand" works here. Russia is demanding gigantic amounts of money from a country thats treasury is pretty much empty and is in deep crysis, not to mention its crawling with pro-russian separatist whose endgame is to basically claim half of Ukr-s lands and create a russian puppeted state. If Poroshenko showed any signs of weakness it would have been another signal to the separatist that Ukr has nothing and they can basically rape the country even harder without any consequences.

Also even if by some miracle Ukr does pussy out. Gives in into Russias demands and lets the separatists do whatever they want. U think all those masked men with heavy gear will just suddenly go away? Not even close. Already their leader is threatening the local population with violence. And Russia will never let Ukraine fully go. What has been proven by now is that areas that are russian or owned by russianpuppeted goverments are quite corrupt and severely poor. Imagine Ukraine becoming a success. People living better lives, then their eastern brothers beond the border. Not likely, i know, but if it happened, it would severely damage Russia internally. By bullying Ukr and keeping it unstable, Russia is keeping itself stable. Proving to everyone they have heavy influence over that there is no greener grass, beond theirs.

So GG Butan. Supporting masked violent vigilantes that want to build a totalitarian state and Russia thats basically blackmailing a barely surviving country for everything its got. So i dont know what are u trying to prove here. Its kinda oblivious the only way anything is gonna work is if Russia "extends the hand", which isnt gonna happen. And Poroshenko sucking Russias butt wouldnt really change much. Mybe less harsher words would be thrown at eachother but the actions would remain the same.

[Thomek]

I was going to write something to convince Butan, but I ended up wanting to smash the keyboard in my face in stead.

I'll put it simple:

Ukraine has Poland in the west, and Russia in the east.

Poland is 100 times better off than Russia. More fair, more freedom, more wealth, more sense, more rights, much less corrupt, less violent, less propaganda. The country is getting better to live in year after year. If you don't believe me, go and see for yourself. To it, and come back to this thread and report what you saw.

The people in western Ukraine see this, and thus realize the Russian propaganda is BS, and they want to choose themselves away from Russia and towards a western way of thinking and way of life. In eastern Ukraine, many people have never seen the west, and believe the west is out to get them like Russian propaganda says.

Putin uses this to his own goals which can be separated as such:

Personal popularity inside Russia:
Taking back Crimea.
Showing strength.
Winning back confidence in RF among population. Loosing Ukraine is like loosing a brother in many russian minds.

Long term strategic Russian goals like:
Protecting some military factories
Taking back crimea, and securing black fleet.
Keeping the west physically away from Russia, so Russians won't know so well what they are missing.  (just like Berlin wall)
So he can continue to run his mafia-like dictatorship, while Russian people are mostly busy surviving.

Some of these are goals that any nation would have, some are more sinister. If you root for Putin/Russia and don't care about Ukraine, this is all OK.

But that's ALL besides the point.

Ukraine is the one getting fucked. Ukraine is the brother who tries to run away from the abusing family, while daddy gives him a serious beating and sticks out one eye for trying.

If you care for the people of Ukraine, the best thing for them is to start turning westwards. Russia has nothing to offer.
(Except super cheap gas which will keep them nice and addicted to it)