If there's a risk of getting spawn capped by an 1800 man army then 1800ish will be the max people will want to keep in spawn-cap-able fiefs. 1100 is more than 1/3 of 1800. Therefore 1100 will be more than enough to attack the majority of fiefs on the map.
Add to this
- the already established trend of bigger clans to not care about any but their core fiefs (Apostates, CA, GO, DRZ and Coalition have all abandoned villages to hold Castles/Towns)
- the reduced number of overall tickets and limit on turtle power due to the cap (At a guess the Coalition would be capped at around 50k which would mean 3k tickets for each of our current fiefs instead of the ~14k per fief we have now)
- the fact that 3k would fall in 2 easy waves, meaning we'd probably consolidate into just 5ish core fiefs which would free up 11 of our Castles/Towns for others to fight over.
Where will people put the extra troops on ? On themselves with crazy upkeep ?
It will be just a "urgency" method when besieged but the first waves of attacks will be on fiefs with crazy amounts of troops in
Not to add that lowering the garrison to avoid the possibility of "flag cap" (which is extremely low in castles/towns) calls for a Lord that is active 24/24 7/7.
Without the 1/3 above 1800+ troops, some sieges may well fall by flag capping if the lords arent there to avoid item bombing, it will call for more reasonable management of the land.
And most factions doesnt "releases" fiefs pre-emptively, for fear of losing them. They all wait for some invaders to take the cautious decision to let small factions take over here and there, where they couldnt manage fiefs efficiently. Then when the big ones falls back, they all get crushed mercilessly (losing villages is as easy as taking them back).
Then, the 1/3 rule shift may give some big greedy factions like GO/DRZ/COA/KAPI/etc... some incentive to release ownership of the least important fiefs to vassals/allies/friends.
Not sure what you meant with decrease of overall tickets, you meant the fact that less people actively play cRPG, so less troops being recruited? That may be true, but still :
Past total garrisoning:
Today:
The turtling has pretty much stagnated, even though there was some very costly sieges in the last weeks. So I think that the total troop regeneration is still high enough to balance the losses of war and attrition.