Your math seems a little odd....
one tick of income is generated every 5 minutes.With x3 you will earn 150 gold in one minute and 750 gold in 5 minutes. In 25 minutes you would have earned 3750 gold.
- assuming an average multiplier of x3, you will earn 300 gold every five minutes.
- in 25 minutes you will earn an average of 1500 gold.
Think of it this way.
Using very big numbers so it is easy to understand:
Let me say I have a 50% chance of avoiding having an item break every time a tick happens.
If two ticks happen, then using the false addition, I would get the result of 50%+50%=100% chance of avoiding having an item breaking, which is wrong. Perversely, if I then claim that it was a 50% chance of the item breaking, it would be a 100% chance of the item breaking after two ticks, which is false.
Realistically you should multiply each other, so X^T where T is the ticks and X is the % would give me 50%^2 or simply put .5^2 which is .25 or 25% which is correct for the chance of me avoiding a break chance, or to put it in other terms, a 75% chance that an item would break in two ticks.
In your case, the chance of avoiding an item breaking is .96^5 for five ticks.
the break rate for each item is 4% chance per minute played.
- for every 5 minutes played each item has a 20% chance of breaking.
(.04*5=.2)
- with only 5 items, on average 1 of them will break per 5 minutes played.
(.2*5=1)
- on average an entire 5-piece outfit will break every 25 minutes.
(5*5=25)
one tick of income is generated every 5 minutes.
- assuming an average multiplier of x3, you will earn 300 gold every five minutes.
- in 25 minutes you will earn an average of 1500 gold.
(300*5=1500)
upkeep for each item is 7% the cost of the item.
- with a 5-piece outfit you will pay 7% of your total cost every 25 minutes.
(see above, outfit breaks once per 25 minutes)
(also see above, 1500 gold earned every 25 minutes)
- 1500*.07=21428.
What ToD said and this.With x3 you will earn 150 gold in one minute and 750 gold in 5 minutes. In 25 minutes you would have earned 3750 gold.
Average round length seems to only be about 2 minutes tops.
Average round length seems to only be about 2 minutes tops.For me it is normally 2-4 minutes, but what is your point with this?
I don't follow your reasoning at all, but it's been years since I've taken a math class and you could very well be right.
Anyway I was actually multiplying, as in:
(annotated and converted to decimal for your convenience)
but what is your point with this?
one tick of income is generated every 5 minutes.Unless chadz has changed income since I became less active, a x3 multiplier will net you 750 gold every five minutes
- assuming an average multiplier of x3, you will earn 300 gold every five minutes.
- in 25 minutes you will earn an average of 1500 gold.
- 1500*.07=21428.
The fact that if you ride a x3 for a round you will probably get only 1-2 ticks max, then map is over and chance decides whether you return to x1 or not. Was just saying that you can't really count on the multiplicator much at all unless your clan is farming the server and riding the x5. Best bet: Sell your first 2 heirloom points and ignore upkeep forever more. Game was entirely different once I broke the 2 million gold mark.I still don`t get what you are trying to tell me.
~21.5k is barely enough money for a set of cheap medium armor and a weapon. Players depending on an average income are forced to wear this sort of meager gear, while long term multi-generational characters with huge stockpiles of money are able to wear whatever they want. I frequently see vets running (or worse, riding) around in full plate with masterwork weapons. Newer players flail impotently against them, then are cut down in a single hit. It reminds me all too much of rich medieval knights in their shining armor, passed down from generation to generation, cutting down hordes of poor helpless peasants. This sort of wealth gap may be realistic, but it's certainly not fun - at least for the majority that are on the receiving end.
I worked this out assuming an average multiplier of x2 and it's around 38500 gold, which is a good amount in my opinion.
Calculation follows:
One item
Expected loss=P(break)*Cost of break
=P(break)*aC where a=0.07 and C =gear cost
n items
Expected loss=[P(break)a(C1)]+[P(break)a(C2)]+......
=P(break)a(Total gear cost)
Ok now you get 100 gold per tick so:
100/(a*P(break)=max sustainable gear cost~38500 gold
Do you have a solution to make it less realistic?
Yeah, I realize now that my math is off by some degree. At the very least the axiom regarding earnings is wrong, since x1 is only 50 gold per tick and the ticks are once a minute.
Slightly lower upkeep?
Ideally, everyone could use anything that they own and all armor and weapons would be properly balanced. That way there would be a trade-off rather than one outfit being definitely better than another. Increasing the weight of plate, for example. Then if you chose to wear heavy armor you would have the disadvantage of significantly lower damage and mobility, to counter the significantly higher defense. Choice of gear would be determined by personal choice and playstyle rather than what you can afford. Really, upkeep is just a result of the devs being lazy (or incompetent, I guess). They don't want to deal with properly balancing gear, so they just make the good gear less affordable.
the break rate for each item is 4% chance per minute played.
- for every 5 minutes played each item has a 20% chance of breaking.
Consider this:
the break rate for each item is 4% chance per minute played.
- for every 5 minutes played each item has a 20% chance of breaking.
- with only 5 items, on average 1 of them will break per 5 minutes played.
- on average an entire 5-piece outfit will break every 25 minutes.
one tick of income is generated every 5 minutes.
- assuming an average multiplier of x3, you will earn 300 gold every five minutes.
- in 25 minutes you will earn an average of 1500 gold.
upkeep for each item is 7% the cost of the item.
- with a 5-piece outfit you will pay 7% of your total cost every 25 minutes.
- 1500*.07=21428.
Therefore, with an average multiplier of x3 your total cost must be less than or equal to 21428 gold in order to break even.
~21.5k is barely enough money for a set of cheap medium armor and a weapon. Players depending on an average income are forced to wear this sort of meager gear, while long term multi-generational characters with huge stockpiles of money are able to wear whatever they want. I frequently see vets running (or worse, riding) around in full plate with masterwork weapons. Newer players flail impotently against them, then are cut down in a single hit. It reminds me all too much of rich medieval knights in their shining armor, passed down from generation to generation, cutting down hordes of poor helpless peasants. This sort of wealth gap may be realistic, but it's certainly not fun - at least for the majority that are on the receiving end.
Fail.
End of reading.
Dude, your item can break or not during every of those five minutes. Chance for that is always the same and it's 4%. Also probability of breaking doesn't change over time.
Probability for opposite event to happen (item didn't break) is 96%.
So chance for your item not to break during five minutes is 0.96*0.96*0.96*0.96*0.96 or 0.965. We're multiplying because all those events have to occur, item shouldn't break during first, then during second, then during third, fourth and finally during fifth minute. By multiplying we're decreasing the chance for item not to break and increasing the break chance!
Opposite event for item not breaking during five minutes is to break at any given time during those five minutes. Which means that we have to
1 - 0,8153726976 to get the change for breaking.
0,1846273024 is the break chance for item during those five minutes.
- with only 5 items, on average 1 of them will break per 5 minutes played.
- on average an entire 5-piece outfit will break every 25 minutes.
- assuming an average multiplier of x3, you will earn 300 gold every five minutes.
- with a 5-piece outfit you will pay 7% of your total cost every 25 minutes.
Include how wpf reduces break chance if you want an accurate reading.
Or Paul, or cmp or...
...anyone old enough who attended university and finished it....
There's nothing wrong with his probability unless you know for certain that somebody is only playing for a set amount of time. But since players play the game indefinitely, the number of ticks is going to be indefinite and you could just as well use infinity. As you get closer and closer to infinity, the variance will slim. And when you hit infinity, it will disappear. So with an infinite number of ticks, each piece of equipment will break once every 25 minutes. But that is ignoring wpf. Somebody mentioned wpf, but that's too much variability to get into.variance is such a bitch...
For the record, I finished college with an engineering degree, which means I took Probability & Statistics as well as a crapload of other math classes.
lol, kafein totally not on topic but I couldn't stop laughing reading your sig-graph about helping parents with computer-problems. Endless hours when I visit my parents or on phone and all I'm doing is on this sheet. Though on phone things can get really complicated...
I trust in Quantum the Mathman
I worked this out assuming an average multiplier of x2 and it's around 38500 gold, which is a good amount in my opinion.
Calculation follows:
One item
Expected loss=P(break)*Cost of break
=P(break)*aC where a=0.07 and C =gear cost
n items
Expected loss=[P(break)a(C1)]+[P(break)a(C2)]+......
=P(break)a(Total gear cost)
Ok now you get 100 gold per tick so:
100/(a*P(break)=max sustainable gear cost~38500 gold
...
Expected loss=[P(break)a(C1)]+[P(break)a(C2)]+......
=P(break)a(Total gear cost)
...
There's nothing wrong with his probability unless you know for certain that somebody is only playing for a set amount of time. But since players play the game indefinitely, the number of ticks is going to be indefinite and you could just as well use infinity. As you get closer and closer to infinity, the variance will slim. And when you hit infinity, it will disappear. So with an infinite number of ticks, each piece of equipment will break once every 25 minutes. But that is ignoring wpf. Somebody mentioned wpf, but that's too much variability to get into.
For the record, I finished college with an engineering degree, which means I took Probability & Statistics as well as a crapload of other math classes.
yea but my Equip is 25000 and I am constantly losing money :rolleyes:
and the dude I play with got equip with 83k and lose like nothing. some kind of bug? idk. :|
Maths is racist.Corrected the English there for you, a plural word when abbreviated does not become singular (despite what Americans think).
Math > Maths
Actually using Maths:
Math < Maths
Since plural implies more than singular.
And using Math:
Math > Maths
Since Math has balls but Maths has none.
Also to further my point, the cost of repairs over time is completely independent of how long the rounds are, which some people seem to be saying here. The repairs apply per tick, not per round and so the amount at the end of the round is dependent on the round duration, but so is the amount of gold you gain.