Yeah, the hardest thing about Tekken is knowing when and what to punish, from my observations. You can get spammed by one string and until you figure out where to block and which time to punish it can take more than the length of the match
I guess this will come with time or massive drilling in training mode against each character, but don't really feel like doing that. I'll learn by losing
I play pretty safe honestly, just waiting for enemies to do some dumb unsafe shit and then punish them with launchers and a nice juicy combo. Some moves you can tell from the animation are unsafe/have long recoveries, don't even need to know it beforehand.
What I worked on the past few hours is improving my launcher/combo range a bit, so I know how to combo from different launchers, just so I have a few extra to mix up. You can get shut down really fast if you only use one type of launcher. On top of that I'm slowly adding more standard attacks to try to open up the enemy defense, poke and whiff punish. Since the move list is absurdly long, I just started with a few basic pokes. There's no point in memorizing that list if you don't know the uses for each of those attacks. I have a notepad open at all times and I just keep adding to it
These are my notes so far, just as an example (I did the same "learning style" with SFV and has worked well):
Pokes
f+3
SS4
b+3
d+3
b+1
Moves
u/f+4
fff+2
(STB) f1+2,1+2
(PC) b1+2
b+2 (gives STB)
b+3+4
Launchers
d/f+1,2
u/f+4
ws 2
STR f+1+2,1+2
STR d+2,2
STR b+4,3,2
CH Launchers
CH 4
CH 4,3
CHd/f+2
CH d/b+3
CH b+1
Screw Moves
2,1,2
4,3
f+2,2
f+3
b+1
Combos
u/f+4 - STR f+1+2,1+2 - d/f+1,2 - CH d/f+2 - CH d/b+3
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, 2,1,2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, 1,2, f,f,f+2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, f+2, b+4,2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, f+2,1,1+2
f,f+4, b+3, f+2, f+2, f+3 S! f,f,f+2
STR b+4,3,2
b+4,3, b+3, f+2, f+3 S!, f,f,f+2
CH db+3 - STR d+2,2
1, 2, f+3 S!, f,f,f+2
WS 2
b+3, b+3, f+2, f+3 S! f,f,f+2
CH b+1
b+1 S! f,f,f+2
f+3 S! f,f,f+2
CH 4
2, dash b+3, 1, f+3 S! f,f,f+2
Starburst only combos
u/f+4, b+4,3, b+3, 2,1,2 S! b+4,3,2
u/f+4, b+1, 1, dash b+3, f+2, f+3 S! f,f,f+2
Wall combos
W!d/f+3,2, d+1+2
Wall carry
Mid combo: d/f+3,1
Low parry
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, 2,1,2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, 1, f,f,f+2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, f+2, b+4,2
f+3 S!, f,f+4, b+3, f+2,1,1+2
Rage Art
uf4 f3 S! (small step?) RA
Started with just 3 pokes, 1 launcher and 1 combo off that launcher. Now I use about 70% of what I have noted down regularly. What I feel like I lack the most atm is some good pressure/block strings.
Anyway I'm sitting at Mentor rank atm.