Poll

Will Putin command further invasion of Ukraine:

He will and he should, because <random witty/boring reason>
He will, but he should not, because <random witty/boring reason>
He will not, because <random witty/boring reason>
Who is mister Putin?

Author Topic: Meanwhile in Ukraine  (Read 628517 times)

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Offline [ptx]

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6180 on: September 03, 2014, 05:39:20 pm »
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At best, you can look at status Baltic countries have atm, but in 20 years from now.
And what is that?

I'll be honest - I am following the whole conflict with interest since the beginning, probably cuz it's gonna be in the history books in 10 years. Actually though, as long as my life is not touched by consequences out of the conflict, I do not really care. And I'd bet we all think they same, except for those few Ukranians amongst us. Well, let's say at least 80% of us think the same way if they're honest to themselves and I guess that's just normal human nature. I don't feel ashamed to admit it. I just consider myself lucky to be born where I was...
I care, though. I think that is common among those living in countries bordering Russia.

Offline Molly

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6181 on: September 03, 2014, 06:35:22 pm »
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Granted. I admit, I forgot about the bordering countries.
When west germany annexed east germany, nobody moved a finger too.

Offline serr

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6182 on: September 03, 2014, 07:06:51 pm »
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Quote
So, they are already trying to solve it like in Yugoslavia. Split the country... listen, when Yugoslavia split only countries that did well are those who were richest part of Yugoslavia. Namely, Slovenia and Croatia. In case of Ukraine that won't work well because it seems that western Ukraine has been super poor for decades. You can believe in fairy tales that Europe (Poland and Germany) will inject money to make your country stronger but most likely they'll use western Ukraine as a slave. At best, you can look at status Baltic countries have atm, but in 20 years from now.

I wouldn't mind to split the country if it helped to avoid bloodshed. Unfortunately, it won't. Even if people in Ukraine will accept it without making another revolution, it will be matter of time before rebels try to get Kharkiv or Zaporizhia.

Offline Butan

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6183 on: September 03, 2014, 07:17:08 pm »
-1
On the other side - Ukraine (however I wish differently) would have an EXCEPTIONALLY hard fight if they intend to take-on russia, and even if I would support them wholeheartedly - its up to them to decide what they want/need more: hard fight ahead, 2 ruined regions with lots of strings attached or a real hope (some maybe would say SEMI-real) for true independence from russia.


Ukraine taking on Russia is not even possible scenario imo. They are barely managing their own civil war with Russia's few thousands extra mercenaries/soldiers (own NATO estimates).
With current balance of power they could not blitzkrieg deeper than 10km into Russia before being completely destroyed by the massed Russian presence at the Ukraine-Russia border, and then Georgia scenario would happen again and they would have a legitimate reason to directly intervene and occupy all border regions and seek very beneficial terms.

Russia has very good defensive position, unlimited access to rebel controled territory and overwhelming forces.
Without external help I dont see anyone from Kiev govermnent ordering direct confrontation... except if they intended to sacrifice themselves to create a media scandal, like when they ordered the garrisoned Ukrainian soldiers in recently annexed Crimea to not surrender at all cost, which didnt work at all.


The "worst" they could do is continue the war while being slowly expanded upon by the rebels, until NATO/EU/US think its time we stop the east threat getting closer to their own border and find some casus belli to throw at them.
The problem is, like with the Crimea situation, national morale is hardly controllable, the country may just stop fighting after a time whatever the orders if the organisation/supply/morale drop too low.
The reports of surrenders in Ukraine shows that it already happened several times locally.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2014, 07:21:18 pm by Butan »

Offline Leshma

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6184 on: September 03, 2014, 08:02:42 pm »
+1
And what is that?

Living standard somewhere in between Serbia and Croatia. You probably had it really bad during Soviet era if you consider current position as decent. Only thing I've heard that Baltics have on par with prosperous countries is internet speed. Which is probably the reason why so many of you are here. You guys dream to be like Greece one day.

Edit: Well, compared to Ukraine you're the thing I guess. Ukraine will bounce to 500 euros average wage few years after this end and they become EU candidate, but prices with double so they won't real feel any benefit.

Offline Kafein

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6185 on: September 03, 2014, 08:14:58 pm »
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Living standard somewhere in between Serbia and Croatia. You probably had it really bad during Soviet era if you consider current position as decent. Only thing I've heard that Baltics have on par with prosperous countries is internet speed. Which is probably the reason why so many of you are here. You guys dream to be like Greece one day.

Edit: Well, compared to Ukraine you're the thing I guess. Ukraine will bounce to 500 euros average wage few years after this end and they become EU candidate, but prices with double so they won't real feel any benefit.

For your average Ukrainian, the point of EU integration is mobility.

Offline Leshma

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6186 on: September 03, 2014, 08:17:27 pm »
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Until that moment come, they will be 50 years old. Unless you're talking about illegal immigrants?

Offline Corwin

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6187 on: September 03, 2014, 08:21:30 pm »
+1
One thing to consider:

Living standard in Russia drops 150%. What happens? Support to Putin drops maybe 10-15% and nothing else.

Living standard in (insert name of democratic Western country) drops 10-15%. What happens? Government falls, social turmoil, general strikes, support to right wings grows etc.

What I am saying is that Russia can dish less than the West, but it can take a hell of a lot more.



I'll be honest - I am following the whole conflict with interest since the beginning, probably cuz it's gonna be in the history books in 10 years. Actually though, as long as my life is not touched by consequences out of the conflict, I do not really care. And I'd bet we all think they same, except for those few Ukranians amongst us. Well, let's say at least 80% of us think the same way if they're honest to themselves and I guess that's just normal human nature. I don't feel ashamed to admit it. I just consider myself lucky to be born where I was...

Nonetheless, I obviously hope that somehow the Ukraine manages to get out of this with the head up. How? There are too many possible scenarios, it's not even worth discussing them all.

Very sincere and very true. Exactly what I was talking about in this previous post. Just imagine this situation - your salary drops 10% because of economic war with Russia. Wouldn't many Germans blame the Government and goddamn Ukrainians for this? Wouldn't you pressure your Government to pressure Ukrainians to back down just so that situation returns to normal?

Do you believe the same thing would happen in Russia? I don't. Just ask any of them here.


One more thing. I don't think Russia would benefit the most if it would incorporate poor regions of Donbas and Lughansk. I think they would profit the most with federalization of Ukraine and installing blocking mechanism, like veto right for these "republics". That way they could block any step of Ukraine towards NATO and EU. Funny thing is, I think this is exactly what the West will pressure the Ukraine to do in the end, and Putin will come across as being generous for giving up on sovereignty of these regions.
I mean, what have you got to lose? You know, you come from nothing, you're going back to nothing, what have you lost? Nothing!

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Offline Molly

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6188 on: September 03, 2014, 08:35:35 pm »
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That's not gonna happen in Germany tho - our nation's export is way too wide spread that "only" Russia could achieve this.
Only thing really that might hurt a little: Gas.
When west germany annexed east germany, nobody moved a finger too.

Offline Vovka

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6189 on: September 03, 2014, 09:16:15 pm »
-1
http://www.youtube.com/user/UKRAINETODAYLive/playlists
add in favorite russophobes

no prapoganda here only facts! wonder why its called "ukrania today" and not "evil russia today"
found 1 video without tag "Russian invasion" and get a chocolate bar!
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Offline Kafein

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6190 on: September 03, 2014, 09:32:43 pm »
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found 1 video without tag "Russian invasion" and get a chocolate bar!

Wait, Crimea wasn't a Russian invasion?

Offline Vovka

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6191 on: September 03, 2014, 10:10:14 pm »
-2
Wait, Crimea wasn't a Russian invasion?
so it's chnnel about crimea oh kk then
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Offline Kuujis

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6192 on: September 04, 2014, 09:53:20 am »
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so it's chnnel about crimea oh kk then
Your jokes are better than this... dodging. Now you sound butthurt, like those RT dumbfucks, who got called proper liars on live air during their attempt to interview Ukraine Today producer  :mrgreen:

Also - THIS - I have... no words... so much truth there... I kept skimming the text and could not understand - is this for real or just Irony at its best: http://dearputin.com/

Also - the sheeps may rejoice - no weapons are crossing the border: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/747948 (please search for the word "both" in the text) and this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMmNHZetNn0 is just something that was formed from captured Ukrainian army stuff.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2014, 10:20:46 am by Kuujis »

Offline Vovka

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6193 on: September 04, 2014, 12:44:19 pm »
-1
Your jokes are better than this... dodging. Now you sound butthurt, like those RT dumbfucks, who got called proper liars on live air during their attempt to interview Ukraine Today producer  :mrgreen:
Also - THIS - I have... no words... so much truth there... I kept skimming the text and could not understand - is this for real or just Irony at its best: http://dearputin.com/
Also - the sheeps may rejoice - no weapons are crossing the border: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/747948 (please search for the word "both" in the text) and this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMmNHZetNn0 is just something that was formed from captured Ukrainian army stuff.
in place Russian / Ukrainian generals I would sell old heavy vehicles to DNR and LNR, the place for dat shit is scrapyard but now it can be sold under the guise of "so no one would know." At the site of Bulgaria and Poland, etc. I would sell my old technique to Ukraine, under the same pretext.
more than 700 people held captive by the DNR, on last week surrendered in groups of 70-100 people, life is more expensive than tanks.
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Offline Nessaj

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #6194 on: September 04, 2014, 01:22:08 pm »
0
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Things don't exist simply because you believe in them, thus sayeth the almighty creature in the sky!