Author Topic: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame  (Read 3630 times)

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Offline Kafein

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A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« on: October 26, 2012, 12:18:41 am »
+24
I just had a course about this and as a rehearsal, I wanted to model the interacting populations of character classes in cRPG, through a variation of evolutionary game theory (please ignore my pompous wording).

So, the idea is to say : we got a number of classes and each class can do more or less good against another class. Those relations exist in cRPG. One of the most obvious examples are polearms. With a vast choice of powerful axes, they are very effective against shielders. More importantly, the more shielders there are, the better polearms will do.

Another obvious observation of cRPG is that the more powerful a class is or seems, the more people will play it. But this change is not linear. It is always more difficult to convince the last, hardcore players of a certain class to change (this is reflected in the model), as witnessed with the last horse throwers (hi Zlisch).

The model aims to take into account that kind of relationship for all classes in relation with all classes (even a class with itself), and the population changes that occur with time. With the right choice of parameters, this model can show what could happen if say, cav became super strong against 2h or if shielders suddenly were able to dispatch mounted ranged with ease. It's also fun because of the chaotic nature of the system. Just like in real cRPG, classes vary in popularity but sometimes we don't really know why (or at least, an explanation would be overly complicated).


At the moment I have 6 classes : "Ranged", "Shield", "2h", "Pole", "Cav" and "HR" (which means horse ranged), the program can easily be extended to include more detailed classes. I have set the payoff matrix in the code based on my ingame experience and also testing the results I got with various settings.

As it is really short, here's a copy pasta of the code (Python 2.7)

(click to show/hide)

After 5 units of time 2h were at 8% then 15 units later they are at 20% of the playerbase, mainly because there are lots of poles. It's a bit like an aquarium. I realize I should do this with matlab and post graphs but heh I did this for fun and I tought it would be nice to post it, if you are into that kind of things, enjoy :)

Offline Lt_Anders

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 12:38:34 am »
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RIght ok, Code doesn't mean anything. Wut is the results that's wut matter!
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Offline Andy

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 12:48:28 am »
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I speak code, and that is a very nice chunk there. Great idea Kafein, looks amazing.
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Offline agweber

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2012, 01:29:55 am »
+1
Quote
Time :  164.2
Ranged  0.237641040221
Shield  0.196870774353
2h      0.270445408452
Pole    0.265281825419
Cav     0.0297609434774
HR      8.07676550724e-09

The numbers have pretty much stabilized. Ranged Cav are no longer around. Cav's barely holding on.

Offline Casimir

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2012, 02:41:17 am »
+5
Code fails to account for 2h cav, code is invalid.

2h cav will one day absorb the entire population.
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Offline bilwit

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2012, 02:48:46 am »
-12
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Offline Spanish

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2012, 02:56:53 am »
0
This is pretty cool but you fail to account for my awesome 2h cav abilities or lordarks shield pole cav archer powers. Throw hybrid and dedicated as two major categories with everything else in those categories or idk how to explain my head hurts
My horse is named pebbles and we like to try.

Offline Rhekimos

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2012, 07:30:46 am »
+3
An interesting model, but it supposes that everyone is GTX, or that they can only have fun when they win.

And that's why people play games, to have fun.

Haven't you ever had fun also when losing to a good player after a good fight? Haven't you had fun when just blocking someone as a peasant long enough for a teammate to kill him? Also some people might find more fun from playing with others, from teamwork and winning rounds, instead of having the best k/d ratio.

It's things like those that are completely ignored by this model. The human element.

Offline Kafein

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2012, 09:49:02 am »
+2
RIght ok, Code doesn't mean anything. Wut is the results that's wut matter!

-1 for terrible documentation and presentation

I know, but I really couldn't post results, without some easy-and-quick way to draw graphs. This is essentially for python-literate people that want to mess around with numbers and see what happens. Not many people I guess.

An interesting model, but it supposes that everyone is GTX, or that they can only have fun when they win.

And that's why people play games, to have fun.

Haven't you ever had fun also when losing to a good player after a good fight? Haven't you had fun when just blocking someone as a peasant long enough for a teammate to kill him? Also some people might find more fun from playing with others, from teamwork and winning rounds, instead of having the best k/d ratio.

It's things like those that are completely ignored by this model. The human element.

Actually this is taken into account, this line :

fitness[myClass] = fitness[myClass] * (1-pow(pop[myClass],2))

means that the closer the current pop of the class is to 0, the higher it's fitness will remain, simulating the fact that the last players of a class will not move so easily.

Also, you are not forced to interpret the fitness matrix as a measure of battlefield effectivity of a class against a certain class. It can represent how funny playing a class is.

Offline Vibe

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2012, 09:52:31 am »
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it's friday and I'm too fucking tired to read any advanced posts so here's a carrot

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Offline Adamar

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2012, 10:09:46 am »
+1
Bah, code... is this a concealed anti-ranged thread or not?

Offline Bjord

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2012, 10:28:19 am »
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Shit, man. This is what STF alts are for. Did you account them, BTW?
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Offline Teeth

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2012, 11:00:07 am »
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I think to succesfully predict anything, you are going to need about 20 subclasses beneath the 6 base classes.

Offline Kafein

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2012, 01:41:59 pm »
+14
Spends 1 hour writing a quality renown-whoring post, gets +5

Vibe posts an image of a carrot in the same thread, gets +8




I think to succesfully predict anything, you are going to need about 20 subclasses beneath the 6 base classes.

Well honestly, the harder is setting the payoff parameters, not creating more classes. It's already very complicated with 36 values. Better yet, we could add different values for each class in each gamemode in the same matrix and see how population transfers in one gamemode affect other gamemodes.

Bah, code... is this a concealed anti-ranged thread or not?

Kinda, but these values are arbitrary.

Offline dodnet

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Re: A mathematical model of the cRPG metagame
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2012, 01:48:06 pm »
+1
Spends 1 hour writing a quality renown-whoring post, gets +5

Vibe posts an image of a carrot in the same thread, gets +8

Ahahahahaha  :mrgreen:

cute carrots > boring formulas
The logic of war seems to be that if a belligerent can fight he will fight.

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