Gold is worhtless

[Liveon]

 It's the economy, stupid, but... not inflation.
Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
Oh, wait... look at the market  : bows, arbalest, danish sword, great long axe, etc., etc.
Prices increased or decreased?

Work ordinary rules of supply and demand(+quantity+quality), the rest is ordinary trolling losers and whiners.

[Xol!]

I'm pretty sure there is a very large amount of gold coming in every single day in cRPG-land.  This post is a lot longer than I originally planned, so I'm breaking it up into two parts, recalculating the multiplier distribution & how much gold this actually amounts to.

THE BORING PART:
Previously, the distribution of multipliers was calculated to be something like:
0.5    0.25    0.125    0.0625    0.0625
for x1, x2, x3, x4, and x5 multipliers, respectively.

Those calculations assume that each round, a team has a 50:50 chance of winning, and that the probability of winning each round is independent of the outcome of the last round.  While at the time, it seemed like a reasonable assumption, and significantly reduced the complexity of the calculation, I don't think it's actually right.

Basically, it boils down to how the autobalancer works.  I'd love to get some statistics on this, as it would make my calculations more reliable, but anecdotally, this is what I've noticed: On a given map, in the first round, there's about a 50:50 chance of winning.  Perhaps the same on round two, after the autobalance.  After that, teams don't shift around much, and whichever team wins round two tends to win the next several rounds, until map change.  Occasionally the other team will band together and fight back with a better strategy, or a new group of players come into the server, or the teams are balanced absolutely perfectly, but most of the time, they favor one team or the other, and the favored team wins.

What does this mean?  It means that this:
0.5    0.25    0.125    0.0625    0.0625
is not correct. 

If we assume instead that round one and two are even (50:50), and then that the following rounds are, say, 65:35 for the winning and losing teams of round 2, we get something much different:
0.5    0.175    0.11375    0.0739375    0.1373125


THE $$$ PART:
This distribution means about 11.8 (96.875 to 108.678) gold per minute more, on average.  It would take the 'break even' cost of gear from 34598 to 38813 gold.

Now, not  everyone uses the 'break even' point, obviously, many are above and many are below, but in my own personal experience, more are below.  Say people, on average, tend to use ~80% of the old sustainable build cost to determine what gear they use (27678 gold). Assuming there are about 200 players active at all times, this amounts to a whopping 8.98 million gold per day coming in to the crpg economy after upkeep.

Disclaimer:

(click to show/hide)

All the numbers, aside from upkeep break and repair percentages (and I may not be right about those, 4% & 7%?) are estimated.  Just so I remember, esitmates made are: win probability for a given round, average number of players on at any given time, and average cost of gear per player.  Distributions were found by performing one hundred iterations of five rounds using probability matrices, starting with an initial distribution of [1, 0, 0, 0, 0].  Not factored into this are alternate accounts or the fact that many players, when on a losing streak, switch gear to avoid wasting gold.

edit: typo

[oprah_winfrey]

In regards to Xol, I think part of the thing with people being under the break even price is because the most expensive armor is not as effective right now with the change in soak damage. Wearing plate used to be a lot stronger then it is now, creating a lot of glances. However this isn't the case as much anymore, so the armor isn't worth the downside to wpf and athletics. I myself have a full set of +3 plate, and I very rarely wear it. This has nothing to do with the upkeep, I just prefer to wear lighter armor most of the time.

Another thing that I think causes loom points to be so high, is that everyone has most of their main gear loomed now so they are more interested in getting "fun" looms. Unfortunately, there are far less goedendags, war cleavers, knobbed/spiked maces, random cool helmets, etc. floating around the marketplace. Because of this, these people are willing to use their unused cash to get what they want. In addition to that, the addition of new items, while awesome, has made loom points more valuable since people will pay top dollar to get them loomed as fast as possible.

[Vexus]

Most noticeable problem is that with all this gold running around the players, upkeep has been rendered useless.

And I rest my case.

[Cepeshi]

I am disappointed...

i read this as GOD is worthless 

[Kafein]

Most noticeable problem is that with all this gold running around the players, upkeep has been rendered useless.

And I rest my case.

It was useless from the start. Now it's even more useless than before, with most of the expensive armors being less effective than the cheaper ones.

[Xol!]

In regards to Xol, I think part of the thing with people being under the break even price is because the most expensive armor is not as effective right now with the change in soak damage. Wearing plate used to be a lot stronger then it is now, creating a lot of glances. However this isn't the case as much anymore, so the armor isn't worth the downside to wpf and athletics. I myself have a full set of +3 plate, and I very rarely wear it. This has nothing to do with the upkeep, I just prefer to wear lighter armor most of the time.

Another thing that I think causes loom points to be so high, is that everyone has most of their main gear loomed now so they are more interested in getting "fun" looms. Unfortunately, there are far less goedendags, war cleavers, knobbed/spiked maces, random cool helmets, etc. floating around the marketplace. Because of this, these people are willing to use their unused cash to get what they want. In addition to that, the addition of new items, while awesome, has made loom points more valuable since people will pay top dollar to get them loomed as fast as possible.

I pretty much agree.  I wear ~10k in gear, just because I don't see a point to running around in anything heavier.  I can still do quite well wearing my leather gloves, boots, cap, lamellar vest and using my great bardiche.  I actually have a full set of lordly plate armor that I haven't used for more than a round at a time in weeks.  My point is that more gold is coming in than going out of the economy, which will naturally lead to some inflation.

None of this is mutually exclusive, it's a combination of several factors, no single thing is really artificially inflating loom prices or what have you.  Even if chadz were to tweak upkeep costs so that gold was actually leaving the economy, loom prices wouldn't fall for ages due to reasons like the ones you described.  Trying to pin responsibility for rising loom costs on a single thing would be foolish.

Most noticeable problem is that with all this gold running around the players, upkeep has been rendered useless.

And I rest my case.

Agreed.  I'd actually like to see chadz add some type of one time gold-to-heirloom point purchasing option, then abolish gold from trading completely.  The market would become more of a place to trade items and try out new builds than to make money or finance a full plate & plated charger generation.

[BlueKnight]

I had some kind of strange idea. First goes the introduction.

As we all fight quite often, we work while fighting. Even if we don't get the gold because of upkeep we get experience which means we get looms. Everybody is treated in a similar way. He fights and gets the gold/exp, but there are some units, who have like 15 MW items and their generation is obviously much below 45. That's because of good deals they make. Unluckily when somebody gains the looms on the marketplace, sb has to lose them. Therefore lots of people could have lost their looms because of the changing value. They got somehow fucked. What is important, some of the people were fucked by nerfing items, which became unwanted. Another problem is a fact that people who decide to sell their loompoints, have enough gold to play paying upkeep for 2 generations at least. It means that upkeep doesn't do its job and is only an obstacle for new players, who can't sell their looms and play in shit, because among all the +3MasterStuffPlayers they are kinda underpowered.

What can be done about it?

We can introduce a new method. Everybody will have the amount of loompoints he has earned by playing or sacrificing. It means that If you have been playing for like a year and you are gen 12, it will stay. You would have 11 loompoints to assign then. You could choose where to put them etc. Marketplace would be removed, not to make this situation come back. After you assign your loompoints you would have a cooldown timer. It would be usable after next 30 days. It would be a chance to reassign your loompoints again.

- There is no dealing with different people - you have what you earned, not traded. - fair
- After a month from last reassiging your loompoints, you would have this option available again and after another month again and again...
- Instead of marketplace there could be a bot-shop, where you would be able to sell your loompoint for the stable price of 300K. (It's a good source of money but doesn't allow to play very heavy all the time)
- New system is friendlier for newcomers
- No raping other players who don't know the prices
- ability to have fun when you respec to different class, thanks to reassigning of loompoints.
- Less whining ( I hope )

What to do with people that currently have lots of looms and smaller amount of gens?

These looms could be sold for the prices in the bot-shop, so if sb had 3 more looms, they would be taken away and he would get 900K. These people shouldn't whine. 300K for 1 additional loompoint is a cool thing for all the marketplace kings.

If such a change was introduced, on that day everybody would have his loompoints ready to be reassigned again.

I am sorry if you think that gaining looms thx to other peoples' unawarness is okay. I think it's not and if there is an upkeep, it is for keeping some kind of balance.

In my humble opinion if you got to this point of reading, you should have already got to know my point of view.

Ah! Poeple who have traded their loompoints for gold, should get them back but they should loose all their gold. Also if sb transferred looms from his/her alt, these looms should be also given to the main. That would be the only situation, when sb has more looms than generations. I hope it can be done somehow. Maybe tracking the "sacrifice" option is possible. If it's not, you have a thing to discuss.

Don't "minus" my post just because you loose something. Abuse is always punished and shouldn't be allowed. We all made prices rise like fuck and made upkeep unnecessary thing.

Anyway, that sounds like a lot of work for devs

Yours faithfully,
BlueKnight

[Cepeshi]

Not bad, not bad at all. Even tho, i sold most of my looms, i would be totally in for this

[ArchonAlarion]

Boo, don't do away with the marketplace.

[Cepeshi]

Well, you would not need market if you could reassign your looms every month or so.

[Sergee]

KILL poophammer

This made me laugh

[Paul]

Shall we add special hats for 5999999 gold?

[Cepeshi]

Shall we add special hats for 5999999 gold?

i bet there are people who would still have enuff after acquiring those, make a whole set, hat for 5999999, robes for 8999999, legs for 6999999, hands for 5999999 and so on 

[Leshma]

If you want this to stop, state aka chadz has to intervene. No other way, market can't fix by itself.