Author Topic: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.  (Read 779 times)

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Offline Tydeus

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How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« on: October 20, 2012, 10:18:57 pm »
+4
The current rating mechanics are set up with an expectation of rating classes being about 200 points it seems (based on the point gain/loss system) and for a 1500 base ELO rating level. As it stands now, if you lose to someone 200 points below you, you lose what ends up being about 5-10% of your total points. Where a 2200 rating guy losing to a 2000 rating guy will lose the same amount of points, that actually accounts for less overall of his total rating. This means that the rating variation is mostly similar to that of a functioning system if you assume that current player rating levels are fairly accurate representations of their skill level. Why don't we have this now? If it's set up for that, why aren't we seeing rating classes form?

Because the base ELO Rating is 100 and skill degradation is far, far too severe (Most systems don't even have rating degradation, but if they do, normally your skill doesn't start degrading until at least an entire month passes without you having a competitive match), skill classes can't possibly form properly. If your rating degrades 100 or 200 points when the highest person only has 500, that means you basically dropped about four skill classes(Not that we actually have them, it's just an example), yet your actual player skill has almost certainly not faltered at all. This is undoubtedly the reason skill classes aren't forming, and never will. No one cares enough to play often enough to never have their skill degrade and any time you have inappropriate rating degradation, you further break the system's functionality.

I know this is implemented to counter exploiters, but when the entire system simply doesn't function, it's pointless to even bother caring about exploiters to begin with. Functional yet exploitable is surely better than nonfunctional. At least with a functioning, exploitable system, you would have far smaller rating fluctuations of individuals, which would itself allow classes to form.

Now, I can understand a bit why 100 was made as the starting point, and it seems like it would be good, but in reality it is another hindering factor. You would think it would increase the average, and that it would be a good thing, but it's actually the opposite of what you need for a functioning rating system. Your starting rating level needs to be approximately what you expect the "average" to be. When 100 is the starting level and 0 the minimum, it skews the entire system and you end up with non linear skill classes forming(assuming you even get them).

Further suggestions:

Only have elo rating factor in after a series of duels, something to mimic a "match". If you make one mistake in a duel, you pretty much have lost the duel against a reasonably skilled opponent, even if they are a few classes below you, if you aren't a str build and in plate armor. In every other game that uses an elo rating system, wins generally aren't dictated by a single mistake being made (unless it's huge). One mistake in chess against a person several skill ratings below you is recoverable. One mistake in a crpg duel against someone with far less rating, could cost you the entire duel, and thus your rating. Why is this bad? Because it means that you can easily lose points without any chance of regaining them. "But over the course of 100 duels it should still even out due to averages." No, currently this isn't actually the case at all. Reason being, rating variance makes it harder to find proper opponents that can actually give you a reasonable amount of rating to being with, and with several opponents that can't give you points, but can take them from you, and most importantly, factoring in skill rating deflation, you can't expect to find proper opponents.

Give diminishing returns for winning/losing to the same person over and over. Rather than having your expected score based solely upon your ELO rating, have it partially look at the past(recent maybe) win:loss ratio to calculate the expected score. This is really great because it prevents exploitation for all cases aside from the most extreme, complex and highly unlikely scenarios. Furthermore, when duelists don't start on an even playing field due to weapon match-ups, builds, looms, etc. you should expect player a to be able to kill player b more easily than player c, but player c to more easily beat player a than player b. This prevents player a feeding on player b to easily increase his rating, while ignoring player c.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2012, 12:11:41 am by Tydeus »
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Offline Kafein

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2012, 12:24:44 am »
0
Give diminishing returns for winning/losing to the same person over and over. Rather than having your expected score based solely upon your ELO rating, have it partially look at the past(recent maybe) win:loss ratio to calculate the expected score. This is really great because it prevents exploitation for all cases aside from the most extreme, complex and highly unlikely scenarios. Furthermore, when duelists don't start on an even playing field due to weapon match-ups, builds, looms, etc. you should expect player a to be able to kill player b more easily than player c, but player c to more easily beat player a than player b. This prevents player a feeding on player b to easily increase his rating, while ignoring player c.

This may prove to be too heavy for the servers.


Actually a very simple system where when A beats B, A gains points and B loses the same amount of points would be neat. I don't think it works like that atm. Also, using 0 as a starting point and average skill makes things simpler. No higher limit, no lower limit either. In such a system, skill degradation is not needed.
I remember coming up with a good formula, giving more points to the winner when the loser had a higher score, and less when the loser had a lower score but I don't really want to search again, as it was a rather painful task.

Offline Tydeus

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2012, 12:35:40 am »
0
Also, using 0 as a starting point and average skill makes things simpler. No higher limit, no lower limit either. In such a system, skill degradation is not needed.
It doesn't matter what the base rating is, as long as there is not a limit on how low you can go (at at least not such an easily attainable limit) or on how high you can go. Rating gained/lost will do the rest, as long as there isn't any point degradation, and matchmaking isn't still screwed after ditching the degradation.
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Offline genric

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2012, 01:03:37 am »
0
My goodness that was an eyeful. But you make really good points throughout that massive amount of writing. For the most part I think you are right. The system is messed up because it does punish people seemingly excessive for losing and I really like that if you duel the same person the points you gain or lose shrink to avoid exploiting and avoid losing too many because they are the only person to duel so you duel them over and over.
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Offline Harald

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2012, 01:13:06 am »
+3
This is the formula currently in use. The max points and chance factor are easy to change so let me know your thoughts. Increasing the base ELO is also no problem. I'll also fix the point degradation so it starts later and has less effect (and inactive characters will be simply removed from the ranking instead of relying on that degradation).

Offline genric

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2012, 01:18:55 am »
0
It's always nice to learn how the things work in the game :)
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I checked, the only Vagabond I found was Wolves_Vagabond_TheCruel, that guy is now unbanned. Ban reason was: "calling Zotte a cockswoggler".

Offline Tydeus

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2012, 01:54:36 am »
0
This is the formula currently in use. The max points and chance factor are easy to change so let me know your thoughts. Increasing the base ELO is also no problem. I'll also fix the point degradation so it starts later and has less effect (and inactive characters will be simply removed from the ranking instead of relying on that degradation).
Awesome, especially love the part about inactive characters being removed from the ranking, instead of having rating degrade. This alone should do wonders. I would suggest increasing the chance factor to 400 due to the fact that having a small pool of players is the opposite of what you want for proper matchmaking to occur. Anything that could essentially reduce rating fluctuations is probably a good thing. Though, this won't really have much of a lasting effect in that area.

For now, I think simply increasing the ELO base to 1500 and seeing how things go after you change the point degradation, is probably the best route. Certainly we'll still see point fluctuations but that will at least be (mostly) due to crpg mechanics, not the ELO system.
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Offline genric

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2012, 02:01:31 am »
0
So whats going to be the start ranking for new characters? Is that going to be unchanged, start at zero, or start at a higher amount? Because someone could just make a character have a person kill them till 0 points remain then delete and remake the character to wash and repeat the process and get score.
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I checked, the only Vagabond I found was Wolves_Vagabond_TheCruel, that guy is now unbanned. Ban reason was: "calling Zotte a cockswoggler".

Offline Bjord

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2012, 02:33:34 am »
+1
God, learn to get to the point faster. That was a lot of text.

But generally I agree with your points.

Also, ELO system is fundamentally flawed for a game with mechanics like Warband. It's a mainly reflex based game with no definitive strategical aspect apart from endurance, basic psychology and patience. Strategy games - be it turn based or real time - will naturally reflect a more accurate depiction of "skill". Since Warband is not a strategy game (at least the dueling part), the definition of "skill" is a lot more complex.

What we need is a less crude formula, basically. I don't know jack shit about math because sadly I didn't pay much attention in school, but what I do know is that "skill" is more than just beating a lot of people and not losing at all. I think that amount of hits dealt/received should be calculated into the score you get/lose for winning/losing. Maybe even the consistency of the speed bonus in your hits, because it's a known fact that good players not only have great timing but know their ways around the sweet spot system - this should be rewarded.

It's a lot of work perhaps, but it could change people's views on the ranking system. I personally stopped giving a shit about the ranking system. It's just menial and not at all accurate reflection of my abilities. It just ruins the other wise casual and relaxing nature of the duel server anyway.
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Offline Byrdi

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Re: How to Improve the Duel Rating System.
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2012, 12:02:56 pm »
0
It's just menial and not at all accurate reflection of my abilities. It just ruins the other wise casual and relaxing nature of the duel server anyway.

This. Remove ranking system or make an option where you can hide it, so I want feel bad because I lost 15 points when I was fooling around in a robe with a quarter staff :(

Also would be nice if you did something to the "use-great-lance-coucher-who-only-duel-people-with-short-weapons" (and leave if they are starting to lose).