cRPG

cRPG => General Discussion => Topic started by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:23:02 pm

Title: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:23:02 pm
Can someone calculate what are chances for you to get 4 prizes in two drawings?
xynox won last time 1 prize,and now he won 2.
guard bifi won 2
old shatterhand won 3 prizes and so on.
5 winners from Mersiless

Some ppl win prizes all the time. Show us software u using,and give us chances that some ppl can be winners few times.
It looks like you need to be member of Guards or Druzina or DenBitre to be winner.
4 prizes can't be coincedence. That is impossible to happend or software is total shit.

Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Chagan_Arslan on June 17, 2012, 07:24:43 pm
the game is rigged, game over man game over
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Lactose_the_intolerant on June 17, 2012, 07:27:03 pm
Quote from: Chagan_Arslan on June 17, 2012, 07:24:43 pm
the game is rigged, game over man game over

says the guy who won twice this lottery for an amount around 850k
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Kalp on June 17, 2012, 07:28:18 pm
three times
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Kafein on June 17, 2012, 07:31:17 pm
Quote from: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:23:02 pm
Can someone calculate what are chances for you to get 4 prizes in two drawings?
xynox won last time 1 prize,and now he won 2.
guard bifi won 2
old shatterhand won 3 prizes and so on.
5 winners from Mersiless

Some ppl win prizes all the time. Show us software u using,and give us chances that some ppl can be winners few times.
It looks like you need to be member of Guards or Druzina or DenBitre to be winner.
4 prizes can't be coincedence. That is impossible to happend or software is total shit.

visitors can't see pics , please register or login
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Prinz_Karl on June 17, 2012, 07:32:29 pm
Well in order to calculate this you need to know the amount of people who participated and the distribution of tickets, would be glad to know it. Also feels like donations maybe have an influence on luck  :shock:
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Chagan_Arslan on June 17, 2012, 07:36:26 pm
damn you guys cant you be happy with my win ? wth... to be fair i bought 10k worth tickets!
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:37:39 pm
 it is not possible for someone to win 3-4 times unless something is bugged.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:41:07 pm
i bought 500 tickets,some other ppl bought 500 and nothing,but some ppl won 3 pricez. Bullshit.
This is pure deceit.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Zlisch_The_Butcher on June 17, 2012, 07:42:53 pm
You guys should consider buying 500 tickets from me for only 75k gold! WILL DOUBLE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING!
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:44:10 pm
but you didn't won. it would be double loss. :D
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: chadz on June 17, 2012, 07:44:26 pm
I bow to your superior mathematical knowledge!
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Zlisch_The_Butcher on June 17, 2012, 07:45:27 pm
Quote from: chadz on June 17, 2012, 07:44:26 pm
I bow to your superior mathematical knowledge!
chadz, wanna buy 500 tickets for only 75k!? Sounds like a good deal, right?
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:45:35 pm
ziguchka won last time 1 prize of 70k,and now she won 2 more prizes. :lol: I bet some ppl from bottm of the list will win again some prizes in next drawings.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Dalhi on June 17, 2012, 07:46:52 pm
Lucky bastards  :lol:

(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:48:22 pm
Quote from: chadz on June 17, 2012, 07:44:26 pm
I bow to your superior mathematical knowledge!
instead of trolling you could give us info how much ppl were playing lottery,how much tickets were bought,how software calcualte... to prove me wrong.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: peter_afca7 on June 17, 2012, 07:48:26 pm
i only won 105k and give 80k(30k first 50k last) so only got 25k profit so meh
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Anal Bleeding on June 17, 2012, 07:49:29 pm
fucking bullshit this is.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: sF_Guardian on June 17, 2012, 07:49:50 pm
Smone in this thread is a derp gambler who is mad about he didnt win...
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:53:06 pm
i am not mad cuz i didn't win it looks like something is not right here because some ppl win few pricez. Look at yourself at list of winners and see it for urself.
Ziguchka actualy won 4 pricez not 3.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Royans on June 17, 2012, 08:04:21 pm
Well, would be cool to have a look on the formula that pick random name so ppl could check themselves. :) ( if its not too complicated )

Well of course it appears to be strange when u see ppl wining multiple prices, when u r taking 500 tickets each time and getting nothing lol :)

Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: justme on June 17, 2012, 08:06:47 pm
whatever, they cant buy a skill...
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Grumbs on June 17, 2012, 08:07:30 pm
I'd put the max tickets somewhere in the 5k gold region so everyone has a fair shot. I wonder how many people who bought 50k worth of tickets didn't win anything.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Harald on June 17, 2012, 08:09:47 pm
The chances with 500/max number of tickets is higher, but there were also winners in the last two lotteries which have only bought a few tickets (as low as 10). The top prize of the last two lotteries was won by people which have not bought the maximum amount.

Around 200k tickets were bought by 2k participants. Average number of tickets per person is around 100. Each ticket gets a number, 101 numbers are randomly picked and those are the winners.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Grumbs on June 17, 2012, 08:12:10 pm
Quote from: Harald on June 17, 2012, 08:09:47 pm
The chances with 500/max number of tickets is higher, but there were also winners in the last two lotteries which have only bought a few tickets (as low as 10). The top prize of the last two lotteries was won by people which have not bought the maximum amount.

Around 200k tickets were bought by 2k participants. Average number of tickets per person are around 100. Each ticket gets a number, 101 numbers are randomly picked and those are the winners.

Interesting. If 200k tickets are sold to 2000 players, does that mean it only breaks even rather than takes gold from the economy? So it just moves gold around
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 08:14:15 pm
so every of 200k tickets have its number? Well that should be valid then,but i can't still beleve that there is some ppl with that ammount of luck.
4 times you get your number picked up. FFS. Unbelivable

Ok harald,ty for sharing with us this information.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Rage_Guy on June 17, 2012, 08:16:12 pm
selling 500 tickets for 55k
PM me if interested
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Royans on June 17, 2012, 08:24:18 pm
Thanks for information

Didnt think there were 2K ppl active in crpg comunity :P
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Grumbs on June 17, 2012, 08:33:25 pm
If you have like 250 people at a time on the servers you probably have at least like 10x that of actual players
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: MrShine on June 17, 2012, 08:43:56 pm
I gained access to some of the lottery code.  A pretty dirty game they're playing.

(click to show/hide)

mod is dead
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Latrinenkobold on June 17, 2012, 08:46:02 pm
HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHHAHAH


AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA

Take this take this!

I WON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Latrinenkobold on June 17, 2012, 08:47:50 pm
just bought like 374 tickets or smth

Someone jelly?
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Arrowblood on June 17, 2012, 08:48:52 pm
me.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Prinz_Karl on June 17, 2012, 09:14:48 pm
Chance of winning any prize out of the 101 with 500 bought tickets is about 24 %, winning top prize is 0.24 %. If I didn't make any mistakes.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: BeastSVK on June 17, 2012, 09:27:26 pm
Quote from: Chagan_Arslan on June 17, 2012, 07:36:26 pm
damn you guys cant you be happy with my win ? wth... to be fair i bought 10k worth tickets!
lol i bought 150K and get fuck...
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Overdriven on June 17, 2012, 10:34:34 pm
Omgaaawwwd omgaawwwwd I actually won something!
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Kafein on June 17, 2012, 11:30:25 pm
Quote from: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 08:14:15 pm
so every of 200k tickets have its number? Well that should be valid then,but i can't still beleve that there is some ppl with that ammount of luck.
4 times you get your number picked up. FFS. Unbelivable

Ok harald,ty for sharing with us this information.

Like... how could a lottery not work like that ? Seriously :lol:


There are 101 prizes which average value is (their total value)/101 . If there are 200k tickets bought, the chance each ticket has not to win any prize is (1-(1/200000))^101 which is :

0,99949512622917130158061747271761

Therefore the probability of winning nothing if you buy 500 tickets (and we suppose the total amount of tickets remains constant which is not true but the difference is negligible) is (0,99949512622917130158061747271761)^500 which is :

0,77685572244734914544174659293137

So you have a 24.5% probability of winning at least one prize if you buy 500 tickets. The average value of a ticket for this drawing is 17840510/101 =  176639 gold.

The gain expectancy out of one ticket is ((1-0,99949512622917130158061747271761) * 176639) , minus the cost of a ticket which is 100 gold. So the expectancy for one ticket is 89,180398005410460101310236634087 - 100 = approximately -11 gold.


Also, if you bet the same amount of gold on all lottery drawings, you will on average lose 80% of each bet. It takes very big variability in number of ticket bought between two drawings and a cristal ball for the expectancy to become positive.
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: Aderyn on June 17, 2012, 11:43:31 pm
Quote from: Royans on June 17, 2012, 08:24:18 pm
Thanks for information

Didnt think there were 2K ppl active in crpg comunity :P

well, some people has alot of accounts :((
Title: Re: Lottery
Post by: XyNox on June 18, 2012, 03:15:58 am
Quote from: Mlekce on June 17, 2012, 07:23:02 pm

xynox won last time 1 prize,and now he won 2.

Its because I am one of the heads of the great supersecret underground archur lobby.