[Guard] The Caravan Guild (Recruiting Worldwide!)

[Tennenoth]

It's always been a typical "British thing" to moan about the weather, yet, when we look at most of the rest of the world, our weather is so bloody mild. We whine about a bit of rain, but we hardly have disaster level weather.

Although, we apparently see fit to close down all sorts of stuff when a bit of snow falls from the sky.

[Elmuri]

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26731790

(click to show/hide)

UK's future climate to be all sorts

British winters are likely to become milder and wetter like the last one but cold spells still need to be planned for, says the UK Met Office.

Summers are likely to be hotter and drier, but washouts are still on the cards, it adds.

The assessment of future weather extremes finds the role of human influence is "detectable" in summer heatwaves and in intense rainfall.

However, the Met Office says a lot more work must be done to confirm the links.

The study has been released before a major new international climate report next week.

That report, to be produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will look at the likely future impacts of global warming.

If the British assessment sounds confusing, you are not alone.

Assuming the Met Office study is correct, it means everything from gumboots to snowploughs and sunscreen to anoraks will still be needed.

As the report's authors themselves readily admit, the British weather varies so "hugely year to year due to natural processes" that detecting trends is tough, and detecting a manmade fingerprint even harder.

'Fickle path'
Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, sums it up like this: "We've got to continue living with the cold events and we've got to get used to the hot events."

He points out that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and that the most intense downpours seem to have become more frequent over the past 50 years - what the report calls the changing "character" of British rainfall.

But that does not guarantee that we will definitely see an increased number of storms in the future.

The British Isles are not only tucked beside a vast Atlantic Ocean whose temperatures have a powerful effect on our weather, they are also at the receiving-end of the jetstream. And this fast-flowing "river of wind" drives storms our way along a fickle path that remains poorly understood - it's an "inherently chaotic" factor, according to Prof Belcher.

The Met Office study is timed to coincide with the start of the final negotiations of the IPCC's Working Group II report.

The scientists and officials involved in that task are closeted in Yokohama.

While that report will assess the latest science on the possible impacts of climate change on a global scale, the Met Office has tried to do the same for Britain.

'Honest' assessment
After the record-breaking downpours of the last winter, the question of the role of climate change has shot up the political agenda so what do the experts say?

A key conclusion is that the "role of human influence" can be detected in temperature extremes, but changes in storminess and rainfall rates need more research.

What this means is that some types of weather are easier to assess than others - and temperature has always been more straightforward than precipitation.

So the authors are pretty confident that average and maximum temperatures look set to rise - and that our greenhouse gases have increased the odds of heatwaves like the one in 2003.

They are slightly less confident that winters such as 2010-11 will become more likely - and that humans have had a role in this.

But as for the last winter, and the wet summer of 2012 and the dry summer of 2010, the conclusion is honest: it is "too early to say" whether our activities have changed the odds of similar events happening again.

The report makes clear that global trends do not necessarily apply to Britain.

For example, it says that while there are connections between climate change and dry seasons in some parts of the world, "there is currently no clear evidence of such a link to recent dry periods in the UK."

So, lots of uncertainty remains - and the scientists are hoping that bigger computers and better models will help provide clearer answer in future.

[Tennenoth]

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26731790

(click to show/hide)

Exactly!

Just watched that on the news too.

[Molly]

As the report's authors themselves readily admit, the British weather varies so "hugely year to year due to natural processes" that detecting trends is tough, and detecting a manmade fingerprint even harder.

Stopped reading after this sentence.

Basically means "Actually we have no clue if there even is a climate change."

[Tennenoth]

Stopped reading after this sentence.

Basically means "Actually we have no clue if there even is a climate change."

Of course.

To be fair, even where I live has a slightly different climate to the rest of the country, because we have the gulf stream hitting the beach nearby where I live. We're often much warmer and the warmer water makes it great for sailing in. No issue with pushing yourself that little more because you know you're not going to freeze your arse off if you capsize... Cold hands don't help keeping hold of the main sheet.

[Munin]

As a finn, laughing my ass off whenever read news from UK / Amurica, when there snows 5cm it's total disaster there and schools shut down, cars slide from roads.

Climate change might mess up Gulf Stream, but main point is that England is and will be a synonym for rainy weather. With you guys walking on moors, sipping tea while wearing tophats, slightly adjusting monocles according to how strong the wind is.

[Tennenoth]

As a finn, laughing my ass off whenever read news from UK / Amurica, when there snows 5cm it's total disaster there and schools shut down, cars slide from roads.

Climate change might mess up Gulf Stream, but main point is that England is and will be a synonym for rainy weather. With you guys walking on moors, sipping tea while wearing tophats, slightly adjusting monocles according to how strong the wind is.

I know, the best thing about it is that everyone always says "we weren't ready for it" - What do you mean? It happens quite often and the weather guys say "we think that it will snow heavily" - you knew it would happen!

I think America has better odds with it because they do have snow more regularly, in the UK it's just mad... but yes, the UK is home of the rain apparently.

[Moncho]

You think that's bad? Try coming to my hometown in Spain, it's sunny over 300 days a year, but the 3-4 days that it rains, the streets collapse, there are floods (people build on the dry riverbeds then complain when water comes down them), and it is more chaotic than I have seen here in the UK with snows

[Lansamur]

bumpity
lazy peeps of guarderia!

[Tennenoth]

bumpity
lazy peeps of guarderia!

I know, they've even stopped joining teamspeak with me too

I've had to seek other people to speak to, likes of a GK & a Fallen! D:

[Bulzur]

I've got a sour throat. Can't speak.

*Best excuse 2014*

[Ninja_Khorin]

I know, they've even stopped joining teamspeak with me too

I've had to seek other people to speak to, likes of a GK & a Fallen! D:

 

[Tennenoth]

Oh yeah, and this guy. Suspektum too but he practically lives in that teamspeak alongside me.

I've got a sour throat. Can't speak.

*Best excuse 2014*

Get better soon!

[Lansamur]

"sour"? Isn't that... "sore"? 

Tenne, Gisbert tells me I successfully adopted your high-pitched squeal when something surprises me (mostly shots coming in at me in World of Tanks..)

[Tennenoth]

"sour"? Isn't that... "sore"? 

Tenne, Gisbert tells me I successfully adopted your high-pitched squeal when something surprises me (mostly shots coming in at me in World of Tanks..)

I'll replace to manic laugh text to: "That's hilarious"

Such a juxtaposition to you as a person.